25 comments on Political sensitivities
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25 comments on Political sensitivities
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The notion that the US or any country will willingly pass on extracting any fnown, economically viable, deposits of oil, NG, or even coal of any significance is laughable. As we near the oil and then NG peak, we will exploit whatever resources we can. All the political wrangling and fights between the pro-production and the environmental camps (just to pick one pair of combatants) will evaporate in the face of genuine need.
Similarly, this question we see pop up from time to time about whether Bush or any other head of state knows about PO is silly. Of course they know. Even politicians are smart enough to understand the concept that a finite resource used at a horrific rate can't last forever. They might not talk about it publicly, but they sure as hell know about it.
Expect to see the jingoism in the US ratchet up a few notches in the coming years, particularly with respect to China. We'll hear more than a few ugly things coming from the extreme right wing of the US political spectrum.
Are oil companies making excessive profits? Yes. Will anyone in the US gov't do anything meaningful about it? No. Is this actually a good thing, to have prices run up pre-peak and spur more conservation? Yes. Does it piss me off every time I fill up my gas tank to know that I'm adding to those billions that the oil companies are making? A little, but I'm far more concerned about the people who can't afford current gas prices, and what will happen to them in 3 or 4 years.
It seems to me that the oil companies are owned by shareholders who, when they purchased shares, paid a price which reflected the anticipated future profits or cash flows of the underlying company. Those who have bought shares in Exxon over the last year have paid quite a high price for those shares and those future cash flows.
Now for politicians to arbitrarily change the rules and tax, or take away part of those cash flows has not even a sniff of fairness about it.
As another poster pointed out, much of the so called "windfall" cash flow is going to exploration, as well as dividends and stock buy backs to those who invested in these companies in the first place.
I'm still slightly iffy on the winfall profits tax. If I knew for certain that that money would be spent reducing the debt, or paying for research on next generation, I'd be all for it. However, the overwhelming feeling I'm getting is that the government would just use those profits for more of the same; stupid taxcuts, stupid programs, waste of money in general. But, I do not support the oil companies efforts for new exploration. That's not going to yield anything, and exploration over the last few years has been an investment loss anyway for the companies.
I mean.. where is the responsible place to put this money? I can't honestly think of anything on either the government side or the business side that warrants it.
Sorry for the poor quality of the post, btw. I'm at work, and trying to get it in during a break.
Not true, Exxon posted $100 billion in SALES in the quarter ending 30Sep2005, and $9 billion in profits.
For that matter, what about the man who invests in GM stock - we allow Exxon to run up prices and profits on a captive market, and drive GM stock into the toilet. I guess it's GM's fault for failing to get a bunch of auto industry whores into the Whitehouse. Free market my ass.
What do you want? A return to 18 cent a gallon oil while it's running out? This is exactly what peak oil predicted - rising prices, volatility in markets, all of which give openings to alternative energy sources. The key is less about what big oil will do but what will people do to get out from under big oil?
And given that so many people still drive gas guzzler SUVs and commute 50 miles to work, I don't feel particularly sorry for them yet. Those are choices that they can change very quickly if they choose to do so. If everyone was driving fuel efficient hybrids, living close to where they work, and we moved far more goods by rail than truck, maybe I'd feel differently but I don't think so.
High prices are part of the cure. Consider this as chemotherapy to get rid of the oil cancer. It will hurt like hell but the alternative is worse.
http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Stories.aspx?General%20Motors%20in%20crisis%20as%20its%20car%20sale s%20plummet&StoryID=348B4CED-FEFC-49EA-8686-AB110C1F75F2&SectionID=F3B76EF0-7991-4389-B72E-D 07EB5AA1CEE
GENERAL Motors will this week reveal that sales collapsed in October, taking its US market share to a 25-year low and fuelling fresh fears that the world's largest carmaker is heading towards bankruptcy. Its US sales dropped 26% compared with the same month last year, according to early estimates, putting its monthly US market share at 20.5% - the lowest since at least 1980.
On a totally seperate note, I have been regularly typing in "peak oil" into google, when I started 3 months ago it was 1.7 million hits,it slowly whent up to 2.1million by last week. today its gone down to 1.7million is it a sunday thing? or something more sinister?