The Oil Drum | Please, Professor, April comes before Thanksgiving

7 comments on Please, Professor, April comes before Thanksgiving

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Dave Cohen on October 30, 2005 - 11:15pm

The esteemed Saudi authority is starting to sing a different tune. Just to provide some visual context to the beloved minister's remarks:

Re: "it may be that world oil output may have peaked in April for this year". Uhmmm.... 84.04 versus 83.99 year to year. Maybe somebody should make a serious effort at working out those conventional oil decline numbers from existing fields. Unfortunately, this data is not transparent or easily obtainable in the general case.

Still, I am reminded that the lower 48 US peak circa 70/71 was not visible the years it occurred -- these were, since the peak was sharp, the highest outputs ever recorded. Optimism was high and the peak was only recognized in retrospect a few years later.

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Heading Out on October 30, 2005 - 11:48pm

(Grin) Please note the "for" in the statement. The EIA is still anticipating that the world production will get back over 85 mbd in January, but this may include both the return of GOMEX production and the arrival of some of the Megaprojects that we have discussed earlier. At this stage one would imagine that a fair number of the companies will have worked out a path forward. But with rig deliveries being both expensive and delayed because of demand and supply shortages, it may well be that an absolute increase in production will be delayed until later in the year.

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7 comments on Please, Professor, April comes before Thanksgiving

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