I think it's quite hard to conclude much about the global situation from this picture alone. We would need to superimpose what the "class of 02", "class of 03", "class of 04" have been doing, and how the 06, 07, etc projects are shaping up. We also need to get a better sense of whether there's a long tail of small fields that contributes materially or not (Rembrandt Koppelaar has listed some small fields, and maybe Mad Oilman will give us some more). I'm mostly putting the update up now in hope of attracting some corrections and additional pointers, and for the benefit of anyone else who wants to do micro-level tracking of the world's oil supply.

I suppose it's somewhat valid to ask whether we believe the 2-2.5mbpd eventually coming from CERA's class of 05 is enough to offset type II depletion in the rest of the worlds existing fields in 05 - if they are, in aggregate, declining at more than 2 1/2% to 3%, then one could argue we are starting to go backwards. But this is tricky - some recent fields will still be growing, while older ones are declining. And I don't want to conclude that the small fields don't count significantly at present. Also, in a sense it's really the class of 02-04 that will be fully hitting their peaks around now and either offsetting this year's declines or not (it's the difference between accrual accounting and cashflow accounting for those who know some accounting - but I think cashflow - oilflow - is relevant here: we can't power our cars with future oil).

I was somewhat positively surprised by ACG. Looks like Azerbaijan is about to enter the positive column in this picture in a pretty big way: