I think a lot of people have gotten into the habit of "solving" problem by buying something new or complaining to someone who truly solves the problem for them. But maybe I'm just being elitist.

The Peak Oil problem transcends any speciality, be it chemical engineering, or geology or thermodynamics or social sciences.

The way I tend to look at things, most of our problems are social rather than technological. We have plenty of technical ability worldwide, but our social, political, and religious systems border on the archaic.

The biggest problem IMHO is our societal organizations. They are incapable of detecting let alone dealing with emerging problems like Peak Oil, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change (not the same as GW), inter-species virus transfer (H5N1 bird flu), etc.

Man's biggest enemy is often man himself. Greed, lust, prejudice, ignorance, and similar things are responsible for a lot of what ills us. I'm far more worried about mankind killing himself off than I am about foreseeable natural threats killing us off.

There may be natural threats which we won't be able to fight off because of the herd mentality. Peak oil is just one of the more pressing problems on the horizon. There have always been these things which force us to adapt in one way or another. Perhaps Peak Oil is an example of evolution and survival of the fittest in action.

I think we're up to the challenge. All we can really be sure about is that there will be many challeges and surprises in store for us. I don't believe science is the only path to enlightenment or suvival, but science and technology will be part of the solution.

i am an engineer and have a pretty good grasp of what we're up against.  

Be careful, none of us really has a full picture of what we're up against. There were plenty of people who thought they knew what was coming with Y2K and they turned out to be wrong.

Now, Peak Oil may turn out to be a major course correction for humanity and it may be a nasty one at that. There are a lot of variables and a lot of people who are profitting off this by selling books, supplies, or advice. I think we have a responsibility to be critical of anybody who makes dire claims. That doesn't mean their claims are wrong, but drastic claims require drastic proof.

We don't yet know what the offshore situation is in a lot of areas, even within the United States. I'm not saying we have enough oil to replace Saudi Arabia's production, but we probably have a bit of a fallback position. Geopolitical uncertainties notwithstanding, I think we have a good chance of prolonging the onset of decline enough to prepare a bit better.

I never thought I'd end up sounding like an optimist. Anybody who knows me well can tell you that I'm a diehard pessimist. I have a critical mindset though -- and I know what a poor track record humans have for predicting the future -- so extraordinary claims require more proof.

That doesn't mean we don't prepare, but few people are going to accept information that conflicts with their view of reality anyhow. From what I've seen engineers and other professionals are almost all ignorant of PO. Myself, I'm just an average schmoe who is well read and has a little background in the industry. I'm the exception, as are most of the people here.

Sorry, I didn't mean to pick on engineers especially. It appears to me the problem is more that all the fields of technology become so specialized, the large picture becomes harder to grasp.

See, I've never thought of it that way. From my perspective, the larger picture never really changes much the more you focus in on the details. I suppose if you fixated on the details and just sorta forgot there was a larger picture out there, you might have a problem. And yeah, there are a lot of technical types that do that. The way modern life works tends to encourage that narrow focus. Attempting to "educate" those who are less knowledgeable about a particular field often really helps you to maintain a sense of that "larger picture" because you have to explain things with respect to it.

My field is in medicine, which puts me rather out of the loop here in the physical sciences sector, but being old and retired gives me the leisure to step back from my own narrow focus and use a wider lens so to speak.

Definitely. I think that's why older people are often commonly understood to be wiser than younger people. It's having a lifetime of experience that allows you to sort of slice through all the bullshit and meaningless details, and the fact that you just don't have enough ooomph to get all worked up in day to day details.

According to him, in his private conversations these scientists and researchers are much more pessimistic about the likelihood of passing the point of no return in climate change

Do you know what they mean by this?

And I think I'll just not introduce the issue of the massive species die-off we're in the middle of yet. Oops, did I just say that?

Heh heh. Yeah, you did. It's a huge problem.

The problem, of course, is that political and financial considerations usually overrule any of these recommendations, or the polical climate can even chill things sufficiently so the right recommendations aren't even fully articulated.  Different types of propaganda can make this even more difficult.

I find that most techinical types, while not always right, just want to find the right solution and do the right thing.  In most cases, they don't care about politics or money, and are probably less likely to accept bribes, etc.

Unfortunately there is so much greed, vested interests and attempts to gain and maintain power in our global society (and especially in the US) that it's almost impossible to just focus on finding the right practical solutions to problems.

Frankly, I don't see how this can change without some way to get society to turn away from seeing profit as the primary and only consideration.

Chris

I don't discount the possibility of nuclear terrorism - that seems quite real.

I agree about the multi-disciplinary nature of the problem and the need for a broad range of skillsets.

I don't think we're going to have a nuclear exchange. But there will be a significant change in foreign policy. The current US foreign policy is a more or less a school-yard-bully approach. Well, at least I think so. There is already a split in the western world. Europe does not want to follow the US on their approach and only because there are such close ties on cultural and social background, prevented this from becoming a real 'splitting' issue. The US will never leave Europe out to dry and vice versa.

But other countries who do not have the same background, and not the same commitments to the goals of the US / Western world, will try to get some sort of power to balance the scales. Be it either economical or military. And that will change things.

As an example: The majority of the Iraqi's have the same religion as the Iranians. Only the 'original' Saddam followers have a different type of religion, but these resemble the Saudi's. These people live around Bagdad, but there's no oil there.

Now suppose that Iran is able to get a N device. And they start to support the Iraqi's to split the country in three (Sunni's, Shiites and Kurds). And take the oil with them to join up in greater Iran. Now what are you going to do?

I don't know what to do. The only thing I can think of is to reduce the dependency on oil and to ramp up alternatives as soon as we can. But that is not a happy camper message. I don't think that the current US government is able to get this broad movement going.

Enough of my rant, thanks.

If GM collapses, then the American automobile industry collapses. With that goes all of suberbia. How can we live in suburbia without cars and jobs that center on keeping up the illusion of real estate wealth? What is the true wealth of this nation?

Airplanes are already falling out of the sky, finacially speaking, with the collapse of Delta and Northwest. Which airlines are next? AA is cancelling flights. More proof that the transport sector is collapsing under the weight of $60/bbl oil.

This has been a polite and insightful weekend thread people. Good job.