So in a sense even though the high price has created an incentive to invest more in increasing supply, the base cost of creating that supply is now locked in at a much higher level than ever before.
Exactly.

And this is a profoundly inflationary development.

And thus the Five year out Supply will be going down, Even short term supply will not recover.

If to many Medium sized Production projects don't come on line, We get a sort of peak drop off!  When we are counting the 100's of thousands of barrels and ohhing and ahhing over them, every last drop seems to be very important right about now!!  Look for this to hurt sooner rather than later.