NC-I agree entirely, and I did not mean to imply this restriction in supply would create a sharp increase in price. It probably would not, because the projects being deferred are smaller finds with smaller impacts. And our oil conservation for the future would be more like a jar of pennies than a serious 401K plan.

Steady pricing is the most important factor here. Sustained high prices will cause serious conservation. Volatile prices will cause less conservation as people react to uncertainty: "I'll keep the pickup because gas prices will go down eventually" or "I'll trade down to a small car when gas prices stay really high."

Unfortunately, I expect long-term price volatility (trending sharply up, but choppy), which may give us the worst combination of more pain that results in less conservation.

Could be like a mini 'Peak Oil' OR 'Peak Reserve' if you like...