46 comments on The back side of the curve
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46 comments on The back side of the curve
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The declining price signal article is oh so predictable...
We saw the same when the oil price went from $30 to $45 dollars and then eased to $40 and everyone gave a big sigh of relief and started back to investing as usual...
Then when oil went from $40 to $55 and then eased to $50 everbody in the markets yet again celebrated... etc.. etc..
The market is so dumb it hasn't even noticed that the price has risen by $20 a barrel along the way and is in a continueing long term up trend.... We get the slightest fall back and the flags come out... why... because that is what the market wants, it wants oil to be coming down in price...
Looking at the graphs it would appear we have at least one more wave in this cycle of advances and then it might just turn out that the whole of this run was just the start of a bigger formation...!
Why can't the economists see that energy drives economics and not the other way around... it seems just so obvious to any logical mind...?
I hope to be in a posistion to start spread betting on the oil price with the next wave... It seems the only way to safely navigate the storm is to ride the wave out... With the money perhaps I will invest in some local industry that is having a bad time right now that will be relocalised by necessity after the peak...
Anybody else have a feeling on how the markets will behave before Christmas?
I totally agree with your forecast, think it will stay around this price for next two weeks.
Where does a complete novice go to buy oil futures? I am sure oil is under priced and would like to help my exit strategy "slush fund"
any advice on this from anyone would be very much appreciated.
The price is then determined by the marginal barrel - and since supply is locked for months on, every 1% drop or rise in demand results in huge deviations in a continuous self-reinforcing process.
The Washington b.urea.ucrats have spoke their magic words of power: "Mr. Gorbechev bring down those oil prices."
Lo and behold, the waters have parted and new abiotic oil has sprouted forth from impermeable rock formations in the desert kingdom. The Price Signal proves beyond doubt, the power of Congress over all things investigated.
I really dont know how the present lower demand / higher supply is being effected - be it through the SPR release, gasoline imports, people flat out broke and not buying or whatever. As an investor you should be very afraid of being on the wrong side of this see-saw even
Francois
is it possible oil could stay below 57?
I completely agree with you that the price is volatile
but surely demand will soon outstrip supply and when that happens the price will go up
why wouldnt people who think this all invest in oil?
which would then mean that peak oil believers would all be hyping bad news to increase there funds???
is this what simmons is doing?
ohhh I am so naive.....
Prices are still around the linear trend observed since September 2003. They are now dropping the same way they did last year around Bush reelection. They could go as low as $55 but probably not for long.