There are also the economic factors to consider.  A lot of our economy depends on people continuing to consume the way they always have.

This is really the part that I just don't understand. What if it simply isn't possible to continue our economy in a world where fossil fuels are difficult to obtain? The economists aren't doing their job if they stubbornly stick to the present economy as being the only possible one that they should be modeling. Economic growth just can't be the only scenario that's possible in our future, and if it's not, then shouldn't we know how to deal with economic shrinkage? Alternatively, wouldn't it make sense to come up with an economic model that still leads to growth without such heavy reliance on fossil fuels? Isn't that at least in the realm of possibility?

I think it's just too far outside their bailiwick.  Like asking a priest to re-write the Bible so there's no God in it.

Trying to re-imagine our economy is a job for anthropologists or perhaps science fiction writers, I think.  It has more in common with the classic "utopia" novel than with current economic theory.

Jared Diamond's Collapse doesn't just talk about societies that failed, but also those that succeeded.  And it's fascinating.  What it takes to become a successful sustainable society is often brutal by our standards.  Population control is critical; zero population is the ideal.    This is achieved not only via abortion and birth control, but by encouraging infanticide, warfare, and suicide.  One of the societies studied in the book has a hard population cap; the king sends away people each year, to keep under the cap.  

One incident that stuck in my mind was the way one society dealt with the pig problem.  Pigs are often a problem.  They aren't very sustainable.  They are tempting, because they turn plant matter into meat more efficiently than just about any other critter.  But meat production really isn't efficient, even at best, and pigs do not provide milk or eggs or wool or transportation, as other animals do.  And they eat only food people can eat.  So societies declare them unclean, as in the Middle East, or put taboos on them that allow only certain people to eat them (as in ancient Hawaii).  

One society Diamond studied went a step further.  They decided to exterminate every pig on the island.  The pigs were getting into the gardens and eating food people needed, and only the elite ever got to eat pork.  So they decided to eliminate every pig on the island, and did.  (Must have been a heck of a barbecue!)

I just can't see us ever agreeing to anything like that.  We  believe that if you can afford it, you can have it, regardless of the cost to society.  I don't think we have it in us to make the hard choices.  At least, not yet.
 

it takes 1.4 acres to feed an omnivore,
3 vegetarians can be fed by one acre,
7 vegans can eat from one acre

consider how much oil goes into agriculture, pesticides, ferilizers, transportation of grain and cereals to feed the animals, transporting the animals.

refigeration of meats.

cooking meats.

I really envy americans you have a far greater ratio of arable land per person than any of us europeans.

it takes many kilos of cereal to create one kilo of meat.

and meat isnt very good for you, the health  implications also make for a less sustainable society.

go on
go vegan
for life

You are kidding about meat being bad for you right? Cereal and grains are one of the worst things for your body.

http://www.beyondveg.com/cordain-l/grains-leg/grains-legumes-1a.shtml

http://www.tbkfitness.org/TBKdiet.html

http://www.mercola.com/article/insulin.htm

wild caught animals wont go far between your population and if their not wild then they will be high fat as outlined in your first link.

http://www.beyondveg.com/cordain-l/grains-leg/grains-legumes-1a

Consequently, the human genome is most ideally adapted to those foods which were available to pre-agricultural man, namely lean muscle meats, limited fatty organ meats, and wild fruits and vegetables--but, significantly, not grains, legumes, dairy products, or the very high-fat carcasses of modern domesticated animals

meat and dairy products have been consitently linked to heart attack and cancer (also partly due to steroids, hormones and I suspect antibiotics that industrialised animals are fed) as outlined in your second link
http://www.tbkfitness.org/TBKdiet.html
Most of us today follow a diet containing a large amount of food which is not readily available in nature, and that must be highly processed to become edible. Our bodies were not made to handle such foods, and thus we suffer by dying of heart attacks, strokes, cancer, and complications from diabetes and osteoporosis.

http://www.mercola.com/article/insulin.htm
reads very much like the atkins diet and he is trying to sell his book.

however i agree cereals and legumes should not be the basis of a diet, you would definetly get malnutrition.

I advocate a BALANCED vegan diet for optimum health and using less resources

nuts, seeds, berries, fruits, vegetables and some legumes, root vegatables and rice if you can get it

 a potato based diet is not good, but that is not to say potatos are bad for you.

as an aside britains oldest man was vegan lived till 111, cycled to work till he was 100 and retired at 104.

if you would like to know more about the free organic food that is available to you then go to
www.pfaf.org
they have a database of 7000 plants that are edible
happy foraging.

forgot to mention avian bird flu, if we didnt have domesticated birds the spread of the disease would be far more localized and easier to contain and quarantine.

But then mabye millions of people dieing from a pandemic is just what we need to save resources so we can carry on eating meat??
and drive suvs.

sorry thats a totally unfounded conspiracy theory I composed after watching "twelve monkeys" recently...

its not serious :)

There is much that is commendable about vegetarian diets, but when your argument is predicated on bashing meat products, you only undermine your cause.
Ha, that beyondveg website is a joke, no scientific credibility.  If you seriously aren't aware of the thousands of scientific studies implicating animal products as the cause of the epidemic rates of "western" diseases, then you have no business commenting on the subject.  People love hearing good news about their bad habits, and that is what sites like beyondveg are all about.  It is exactly the kind of site that would call peak oilers crazy, and promote garbage like the abiotic oil theory.  Never heard of Dean Ornish, MD?  John McDougall, MD., PCRM.org?  These folks present their arguments based on scientific studies, not on feel-good assurances that the status quo is always right.  

And then bashing grains?  You sound like a raw fooder, lol!
If grain-based diets caused chronic disease then the incidence of western ilnesses like heart disease/cancer should be HUGE in the poor populations of the world that base their diets on grains. Instead, these diseases are nearly unheard of in these populations, which make up a major part of world population - clearly a glaring contradiction.

The book noted below is yet another elucidation of the unhealthiness of meat.  Even tiny amounts (by western standards) showed negative consequences.  5000 people in the US drop dead every day from artery diseases clogged and ruptured by what, rice and vegetables?  The head of The Framingham Heart Study, the grand prix of heart studies,
says they have never seen a case of heart disease from a person with a cholesterol lower than 150.  Guess what level cholesterol drops to when you stop eating meat and dairy?  under 150.

The China Study : The Most Comprehensive Study of Nutrition Ever Conducted and the Startling Implications for Diet, Weight Loss and Long-Term Health -- by T. Colin Campbell,

It's important to keep an open mind, but not so open your brain falls out.  (Carl Sagan?)  In my unpopular opinion, if you believe meat is healthy then your brain is flopping around on the ground, waiting to be picked up.

"It's important to keep an open mind, but not so open your brain falls out.  (Carl Sagan?)"

Hmmm. Didn't Lenin (Trotsky? Stalin?) define a liberal as someone whose mind is so open that his brains fall out?

Off Topic

In most "traditional" cultures meat was considered a flavoring.

Best to limit all highly refined substances in one's diet, be they pastas or pepperonis.

What if it simply isn't possible to continue our economy in a world where fossil fuels are difficult to obtain?

This is really at the heart of the issue. The world's economy has grown, on average, for centuries, and our fossil fuel consumption has increased in lockstep with it. We can get one-time efficiencies, and be more productive. But can we, as a world economy, grow long-term without using more energy? I doubt it, but I don't think anybody really anybody knows the answer yet.

Could we continue to grow by substituting other forms of energy for oil or natural gas? Sure, if they are available in enough quantity, at an acceptable price, and in usable forms. But the physics, economics, and logistics of pulling this off are unbelievably enormous.

The problem with substitutes
If you look at any aspect of the energy problem, it looks like a house of cards. Half the homes in America heat with natural gas. No gas? Electricity is a substitute heating technology that is feasible and commercialized and ready to go--a best case substitution scenario. Call the contractor, put in a heat pump.

It works fine for one home-expensive, but otherwise quick and fairly easy. But consider scalability. If a large number of people convert, transmission lines overload. Remember the East Coast blackout? So we need to tool up to manufacture a lot of heatpumps, and rebuild the lines, and the substations, and then we need to put in more electricity.

But where do we get the electricity? Can't burn more natural gas, 'cause there isn't any more. So we need to build new power plants using other fuels or renewables of your choice, which takes years, and raises lots of other issues.

We need substitutes, but it's a process that will take decades to do. In the meantime, economies will suffer. We simply do not know how to manage a steady-state economy, or how to manage economic shrinkage in a humane way. There is a lot to learn.

Geothermal.  Geothermal heating of houses is the only real way to go.  Burn wood/pellets?  Everyone?  Lots of dirty chimneys dumping carbon and soot into the air.  Gas is going to get evermore expensive and NEVER come back down.  Electricity?  One of the worst ways of heating a home there is - really wasteful and merely transfers the pollution/fuel use upstream to electricity generating plants.

 

 The only valid way to properly heat AND cool a house in the coming problematic times will be, for the middle and poorer strata will passive earth - buried or partially buried housing that thermoregulates from the ground.  For those that can afford more elaborate systems is geothermal - drilling deep and laying pipe to transfer cooling/heat from the ground.  

   

I'd LOVE to go geothermal but to retrofit a house with geothermal heating/cooling is extremely expensive.  As it is, I'm rural and my house uses propane and a woodburning stove for heat.  I've been looking into solar heating, at least for water.  It is too expensive to retrofit for solar home heating as well as water heating.  


 

Passive geothermal or deep geothermal are the easiest.  You could try to sell people on it by tapping into the Lord of the Rings movies:  homes and communities built along the lines of Hobbitown.  

The only valid way to properly heat AND cool a house in the coming problematic times will be, for the middle and poorer strata will passive earth - buried or partially buried housing that thermoregulates from the ground.

But... this is a very long-term undertaking. Roughly speaking, 50% of the US population lives in the suburbs and 25% lives in urban areas. Buried housing is impractical for much of that — there is no buried equivalent that matches the density of high-rise housing (or even three-story tall "garden" apartments), and while it might be possible in the suburbs it would require complete replacement of the existing housing stock.

My understanding is that earth sheltered housing benefits primarily from the huge thermal mass of the earth itself. It would seem then that any other building technique that can employ high thermal mass, either from the earth directly or in some other manner, might be able to achieve similar heating and cooling benefits. Such structures would also seem to be candidates for 1-3 story multi-use buildings.
The house I live in came with a geothermal system, but I don't use it very often because it's too expensive to run and it doesn't keep the house even vaguely warm by itself if the temperature dips below zero Celsius (which it does frequently). When I bought the house, I installed an outdoor wood-burning furnace to provide heat and also hot water in winter (I have solar thermal hot water in summer when the wood furnace isn't running). The next step is to hook the furnace up to baseboard radiators so that I can avoid using the main fan to circulate the heat round the house.

I only use the geothermal heating as back up if I'm going to be away and I don't want the pipes to freeze. For the time being (while I can still afford it) I use the system for cooling in summer when the temperature gets into the truly unbearable range. I recognize that it's a luxury though, and that I'll probably have to do without it in the future. If I was looking for a home again, I'd do as you suggest and build a hobbit-hole.

I know not everyone could do this but its such a beautiful design, for all you budding hobbits

www.earthship.org

this house doesnt need heating!!

and is made from recycled materials

mabye for the non troglodites we could use wood pellets, nice to see a "green" power station being built

http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=162495078&p=y6z495784
The CHP plant makes the sawmill site self-sufficient in electricity, saving over £1 million a year, with the surplus electricity sold to the Northern Ireland grid.
In addition it powers the largest bio fuel pellet production facility in the British Isles.
The plant produces 50,000 tonnes of high-energy fuel pellets - displacing fossil fuels and the 200,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide which would otherwise have been released into the atmosphere.

When citeing production figures you should include a time factor. Is that 50,000 tons a second or 50,000 tons per century?
sorry tom that was a direct quote from the article I didnt write it.
"The house I live in came with a geothermal system, but I don't use it very often because it's too expensive to run and it doesn't keep the house even vaguely warm by itself if the temperature dips below zero Celsius (which it does frequently)."

Your system was not sized properly. Can you go after the contractor?
I wanted a ground source heat pump system but municipal code precludes drilling and my lot is too small for the other trenching method.

I don't even know when, or by whom, the geothermal system was installed as I didn't own the house then. If it was upgraded in order to be able to provide enough winter heat, presumably that would make it even more expensive to run. The thing devours electricity and I'm trying to move towards living off-grid. I could never run it with renewable energy.

Perhaps newer models are more efficient, but the cost of replacing it would be too high. Of course if my house were newer, better insulated and had a lower surface area to volume ratio, the geothermal system I already have would cost less to run and would keep my house warmer. I should have built a hobbit-hole when I had the chance!

If efficiency is currently low enough, growth can continue even as raw energy use falls.  If you consider that the average automobile is 17% efficient, there's a heck of a lot of room for improvement.

Your heating scenario is overly simple.  Let me suggest another:  40% of the homes convert to heat pumps, and the other 60% swap furnaces for gas-burning cogenerators.  When the mercury falls, the homes burning gas get their heat from the cooling jackets and exhausts of the generators, while the homes with heat pumps get their electricity largely from the surplus of the cogenerators.  If the cogenerators had 30% electric efficiency and 95% overall efficiency, and the heat pumps had a CoP of 3.5, you'd multiply the effective heat by about 1.8 and cut 45% off the gas demand without any less heat.

This system works great with extra generation.  If you can supply wind up to the limits of the wires, the heat-pump users could run on it and the cogenerator users could buy the surplus at minimal rates to use as resistance heat.

The US builds what, 13 million cars a year?  We should be able to build at least that many cogenerators a year, maybe in the same engine plants.  At 13 million a year, retrofitting the gas-heated fraction of our 80 million households should be doable in just a few years.  (Other considerations would prevent it happening that fast, but I think I've made my point.)

Cogeneration is a great technology. Put it to work in more central power plants, and with more industrial users. We'd get economies of scale, with a few big units making a lot of electricity and heat.

Your heating scenario is overly simple.  

My heating scenario could actually occur. We need vision, and hope, but we also need reality. I think our only real hope for the next decade or more is off-the-shelf solutions that fit with established habits, practices, and infrastructure.

My heating scenario could actually occur.
What's so difficult about the utility promoting cogeneration in areas where loads from heat pumps are high?
Rick, the problem with heat pumps is that they are only applicable in certain areas of the country. Here in Baltimore is about the furthest north you can have heat pumps and still have them work decently without having to resort to electric back-up any time the temperature goes below freezing. The amount of electricity used for back-up heat is drastically more than for the normal operation of a heat pump.

From the American Housing Survey, I estimated that less than half the homes would be good candidates for heat pumps, based on the severity of winters (determined by heating degree days), but no other criteria, such as fuel availability.

Ground-source heat pumps work pretty much everywhere south of the permafrost zone, no?
True, but they are not feasible options in many cases. The best case scenario for installing GSHP as a retrofit would be in a single family home with radiant floor heating. In town or row homes, there's not enough ground area; homes with other systems would need extensive remodeling. With many homes in colder areas located in cities, I don't see this as being a widespread option for the north. These would be useful in homes that don't receive gas service, although that appears to be a small percentage. It definitely could increase the percentage that could use HP as opposed to the cogen units, but probably not by much. In those homes where it is feasible, it provides a short payback period of 3 to 7 years. I would also strongly consider this in a new home, especially with the option to heat domestic water. Helpful links: MJD Mechanical Geothermal FAQ
It was my impression that refrigerant tubes worked just as well stuck vertically down wells as they do horizontally under the turf.  That would eliminate the "insufficient land" problem, the only question is the cost.