I wonder if the Saudis are setting themselves up, and if so, why. If they expand production as stated, applause all around. However, if they don't, many will assume it is because they don't want to, greedily hoarding their treasure to themselves and/or holding out for ever higher prices. This would cause unhappiness among US consumers, already displeased by 9/11. Many would then wonder if we should go over there and help them increase production.

The only reason I can think of for the many (thousands?)princes putting themselves in such a potentially awkward situation would be the thought that, if the populace were to think the resource might soon run out, the ungrateful might try to end the well-deserved (but paltry) billions paid to them each year (month?)  Naturally, every month or year they hang on means ever fatter Swiss bank accounts.

Meanwhile the IEA is carefully covering their rosy estimates (behind) by saying that OPEC must invest many billions to expand production, and that if OPEC can't/won't make the investments in a timely manner, it is OPEC's fault and the IEA obviously cannot be blamed. This position firms up Saudi for the patsy role.

OPEC's past performance of withholding production to firm up prices helps all the more to prepare the cartel for considerable blame. However, it should be said (but won't be) that past withholding, and the ensuing high prices/reduced consumption, clearly delayed the peak by several years (and at least delayed global warming). Try to imagine $3/barrel instead of $3/gallon.