The Oil Drum | Exxon, and the Implications of 8%

140 comments on Exxon, and the Implications of 8%

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WebHubbleTelescope on November 18, 2005 - 11:28pm

but then it is inevitable that the production will again slowly slide down (following the logistic curve) and the slide will soon become uncontrollable.

Why again does it follow the logistic curve?

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Stuart Staniford on November 18, 2005 - 11:36pm

You continually critize the Hubbert curve, yet as far as I know you still haven't done any evaluation to show that your model can project forward any better. Your modeling tends to use a lot of parameters, and smells strongly to me of overfitting the past data. The onus is on you to show that your model is useful predictively. I for one am weary of all the carping about the logistic model, which, while it's undoubtedly a crude approximation, does actually have a track record of useful prediction in a significant number of basins. Please put up or shut up.

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140 comments on Exxon, and the Implications of 8%

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