In the first of your posts, you stated that US demand was going to be 25 TCF by 2012, but I don't see how it could go that high. We've been using 11.8 TCF for the past two years, and now that the supply situation is getting more and more constrained, I don't see how we double in 7 years.

More industry is moving overseas, and people are getting wise to the gas situation. I believe that we're going to see more and more people replacing gas furnaces with heat pumps, going for the highest efficiency units (92-95%) when they stick with gas, and burning more wood in the coming years. Those trends are already clear this year just because of the fear invoked by the drumbeat of media reports on higher heating prices this winter.

I know Peter Dea said that half of the gas we'll need by 2012 hasn't been discovered yet, but I didn't catch that he was assuming 25 TCF demand. If that's the case, then it's not as bad as it sounds from the standpoint of NG. It could be worse for pollution, however, as more people use electricity (mainly coal) and wood.

If it's true that we could import 10-20 BCF/day, we may be OK for a while after the demand destruction kicks in. There are still a lot of unknowns, however. For example, how likely are we to really get that 10-20 BCF/d when other countries closer to the source want it worse than we do? Peter Dea mentioned the LNG tanker that was on its way to the US this summer (fall?) when Spain offered more than the $14/MCF we were going to pay and the tanker turned around and went to Spain. I think that's one of the trickiest parts about this whole thing.