I have long had an interest in energy and alternative/ renewable fuels, and went so far as to read Oil and Gas journal purely out of interest.  (I read a lot of journals outside of energy too.  I am alleged to be a biochemical engineeer and physicist)

Years ago I went to work in a biomass fuels group (alas, only briefly in existence) at Exxon and was surprised that I was the only person among the oil people in the building who read Oil and Gas Journal. In general the people were not looking at a whole lot of the wider picture.  (One exception:  Bob Hirsch was there) I think one problem wth oil companies and people in general is their tendency to be parochial and to ignore the bigger pictures that surround them.  And when most of those around are engaging in a kind of group think, looking at limited pictures and immediate concerns, it is easiest to think the same way.

Rosy projections are comfortable.  They occur for understandable reason but get in the way of progress.  Very often, by projecting rosy long-term outcomes to the powers that be, you can keep a good job at increasing salary for several years--until the "swept under the rug" problems you should not have ignored, and realities you should have seen, result in failure.   The situations have seemed pretty similar to me in biofuels (lots of dreamers and rosy projections and then failures, for decades) and the oil industry's projections of new finds and denial of peak oil.