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My sister believes in peak oil. She went out and bought a hunting knife after I told her about it. o_O
My dad actually told me about oil depletion when I was a kid, and warned me about Malthus' Doom. I was a cornucopian when I was a kid, sure that technology would always save us (and sure I would be part of the solution, probably winning a Nobel Prize along the way ;-). Now it's kind of reversed. I fear the worst, but he doesn't seem too worried about it. Maybe he figures he won't have to worry about it, since he's almost 70 years old. Or maybe it's too depressing to consider at this point in his life, when he's living off his pension and has several medical issues typical of old age.
My mom beleives me, she's actually going to let me hook up some small 12volt mills on her property so i can start to figure that stuff out. She lives in the country and is my 'ace in the hole' for when the anarchy comes. ;)
My dad doesn't really know what to think, I made him watch The End of Suburbia and his only comment was 'That's just their opinion', and he wouldn't even read Twilight in the Desert. I'm sure he'll come to beleive more once he starts getting his heating bills this winter.
Most of my friends listen, and I think they understand it, but I dont think many of them think that it can happen. Although, atleast they think about me from time to time and send me nice cartoons for my desk like this one (its work safe) - http://www.toothpastefordinner.com/110305/ready-set-worry.gif
We have a little food co-op here that gets together monthly to order bulk. I've used this as an opportunity to talk and to pass around books on the subject.
My family hasn't been spectacularly involved in the issue, but they know about it and have not expressed any doubts. I have a niece (whom I showed End of Suburbia) who gave an oral presentation on peak oil in her college class.
The people I hang out with are all expressly liberal or Green. Many of us are cultural dropouts who are well prepared for whatever comes down the pike.
One friend has a sort of paganist camp. She invited me to speak on peak oil (I'm agnostic and have no interest in religions, pagan or otherwise). I sprang at the invite and was received very warmly.
A person in our coop has invited me to give a presentation on peak oil in her history class next semester. I've already talked to the professor about it and he seemed very interested.
Ironically enough, I've met a wall of indifference from our geology department (I work at the local Univ). I tried to stir something up, but their treatment was less than encouraging.
After having mild panic attacks by the forecast of blizzards this weekend, I found this intresting little peice on the met office website
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2005/pr20051121c.html
News release
Natural fluctuations can help predict climate change
21 November 2005
Predictions of future climate change have, until now, been based on simulations of the effects of increasing greenhouse gases. However, new results show we could learn more about climate in the next few decades by supplementing these with predictions of a natural climate cycle: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO.
The AMO is a climate fluctuation which occurs over several decades, whose warm and cool phases can be traced back in global records dating from the 19th century. Its effects are centred on the North Atlantic Ocean, but it appears to influence many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Scientists have previously found links with European and North American climate, drought in the semi-arid African Sahel region, and the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. Indeed, the record 2005 hurricane season is part of the very active last decade associated with the current warm AMO phase.
To test whether the AMO is a permanent feature of our climate, Met Office scientists, with colleagues in the United States, examined a 1,400-year climate model calculation. They discovered that not only could the AMO be accurately simulated by their model, but that it is a genuine long-lived climate oscillation.
The Met Office team then tried to link the AMO to variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC) -- the global ocean circulation driven by differences in the density of sea water -- and found that the next AMO transition may bring natural THC weakening, adding to that projected to occur as a result of human-induced climate change.
A paper, soon to be published in the American Geophysical Union's journal Geophysical Research Letters, highlights these recent breakthroughs, and recommends that shifts in the AMO are taken into account in future climate change predictions.
I am careful about such "hot button" issues at work, where people have no choice but to be there with you & I don't want to be tiresome. Somehow PO is too close to politics, and therefore taboo. I have not yet figured why! I discussed it at length the other day with one of my co-workers who I know has an open mind - he's dealt with me on medical issues where I also have unconventional views (which he largely agrees with). His reaction was somewhat cool, but I know he will watch and digest what I said, and he may come back later if things seem to be going as I described. But most people think technology will save the day, if they think about it at all.
But I do sense a growing feeling of gloom about the future from a lot of people. For most it is un-quantified, but there nonetheless. People are worried and potentially very angry. I'm expecting to see some serious political manifestations of this soon, and I'm wondering if there is some way to channel this into doing something productive about energy conservation / alternate sources. I have no idea how. Perhaps if it is shown that the Iraq war really was about oil, you might not be looked at like you have a third eye when you talk about PO!
Were these open letters or did you actually send/email them to family and friends?
Some wrote email back saying I was over-reacting or that I had it backwards - prices go up and then people conserve as a result. Some others wrote very encouraging notes but didn't quite embrace the peak oil concept, but more general ideas about saving the environment. Mostly I got no reaction at all...
I immediately went into full doom and gloom mode and started trying to tell everybody we knew about it.
The reactions have ranged from belief with amazement to derision and anger.
It is a very difficult topic to approach and now I tend to be cautious about sharing it.
My opinion now is that I have told my immediate circle of family and friends and if they don't believe then that's up to them. I've done my bit, as it were. If they chose to ignore it, then that's their choice. But I do keep sending my immediate family little snippets of news via email (like last week's news of the Burgan field). I put "Peak Oil News" in the subject line so that they can delete it if they want to.
I put together a powerpoint presentation a couple of months ago that I presented at work one lunchtime. The few people that turned up were very sceptical, but a couple were genuinely interested. I also did the presentation one night in the school hall, but only three people turned up who were all sympathetic to the subject, so it was easy for me. If anyone would like a copy of my slides, I'd gladly email them to you. Send a request to duncan (at) clear dot net dot nz.
Obviously there's a reason for your question. Have you had great success telling people you know?
My biggest problem is reminding myself that Peak Oil is not just an intellectual exercise--that it's going to have a real impact on how I live my everyday life sometime in the near future. It's so easy to forget that.
People cannot handle any pain or even trivial inconvenience.
As part of a weekend PO exercise. I walked to the mall. I live on top of a large hill and the mall is nearly a mile way at the bottom of the hill. The road is very steep easy walking down. It even has a 3 ton vehicle limit. Coming up is another thing. I carried my groceries in a backpack up it. No car and I am in good physical condition as I walk every day for near an hour. When you take the car it's an easy few minutes drive with your foot on the brake. Coming up most cars have to change down to keep a consistent speed.
I can tell you my muscles and heart were heaving , so I can only imagine what it would be like for some one on the obsese side to do the same. Many of them were walking around the mall eating fried food and burgers.
My point is when the easy life is no longer easy, It will be easier to complain than change. Unfortunately it will take many by surprise.
Our way of life is so oilcentric, it is near impossible for many to think of. It is certainly not warm confortable or cheap. It involves hard work and hard choices.
Peak Oil
A Turning Point for Humanity
My family all think that science will save us. <sigh>
Rick DeZeeuw
"Death, Taxes, and
PEAK OIL."
"Oil will never run out."
"Cars don't pollute that bad."
The biggest problem with this is human psychology. People are not real good at dealing with very long term problems, especially when they are diffuse. Recall how hard it was for many people to accept that freons were destroying the ozone layer. Recall how people were in a panic to get flu shots last year and then as the peak of the flu season passed we wound up with unused vaccine. How do we ask people to prepare for a time in the indefinite future when we won't have cheap oil?
Another issue is that there is no obvious solution. Historically we've progressed from wood to coal to oil (and somewhat to nuclear). There is no step up available. The next step will be a huge change in how we organize our society. Since we've organized till now based on nearly free energy the change will be painful.
Right around the beginning of 2002 I finally had a computer again so my reading took the turn back to favorite subjects and bang!
I have stopped trying to warn my family, They either don't want to see the end ( to old and to set it our ways) or they think as a lot of folks I talk to that ( the world will solve it cause we have to, and look at the technology we have ).
We are all faced with the Status Quo. That chunk of human nature that says if it is not broken don't fix it. We refuse to see the drip in the tub because it has not run over the edge yet! All the while drip by drip we run up our water bills.