So, the bottom line here is that there's just too much uncertainty to know whether SA might be down to 7 mbd in 5 years or up to 12 mbd. We don't know nearly enough about the decline rate. We don't know what other projects they're working on. We don't really know the state of their top fields. And, they may not be far enough along for us to project from the Hubbert linearization method to their ultimate production.

Simmons says they've probably passed peak sustainable production, but Jeremy Gilbert told Steve Andrews at the ASPO-USA conference that he thinks the Saudis can get up to the high teens. But if that's true, how many rigs would they need, and where will they get those rigs?

I guess it's interesting to speculate, but it's important to keep in mind that in the bigger picture, it doesn't matter a whole lot. There are plenty of indicators that we're at the front end of the period of "demand destruction," that lovely euphemism for people with fewer resources being shut out.

Or maybe those energy miracles are about to happen!