/sacarsm on

So, is there really an economic reason to Iran try to develop atomic energy? They need atomic energy to lower Iran's oil and gas consumption (and so, to make possible to export more oil) as the iranian government say and the USA government say it is a lie...

As the USA government have acess to the same data and anyone can get to same conlcusions, it is possible that the USA government is lieing when they say that Iran want atomic energy to get nuclear weapons for the terrorists...so, it is possible that Bush and Cheney are lieing about Iran?

I cannot believe it!!!!!

Bush and Cheney never lied beofre! They found WMD at Iraq and Sadam had ties top Al Qaeda!

/sarcasm off

Sorry my bad english, my native language is portuguese

Good luck to the US soldiers when invading Iran....they will need it...

My guess is that Iran probably has two parallell development programs.
One for building ordinary power producing reactors.
One for developing nuclear weapons.

Both programs can benefit from enrichment plants, fuel manufacturing plants and share some expertese.

Iran could back down by importing enriched fuel for their power producing reactors. Not running their own enrichment and fuel plants removes the ability to make highly enriched uranium that directly can be used in nuclear weapons and fuel to small specialized hidden nuclear plants optimised for producing plutonium.

The problem is that it is possible to hide most of the military nuclear program  and to have most of the equipment underground wich makes it much harder to attack.

If aerial bombardment is contempakted as a tool for removing the Iranian nuclear program it gives bad choices.

1. Bombing the obvious civilian powerplants.
Does not help, makes the Iranians mad, shows that USA is a bad country.

2. Bomb the hidden facilities with conventional weapons.
Will probably not be enough, makes the Iranians mad, will be applauded by manny.

3. Bomb the hidden facilitiss with nuclear weapons.
Will probably work if you hit enough of them, makes everybody mad.

4. Bad Iranian planning leaves key facilities out in the open.
Makes Iranians mad and only makes other people realy mad if the only soft spot left was to take out the qualified workforce  including their neighbourhood.

They only good outcome is if internal opposition makes Iran more democratic  and other countries are allowed to inspect that they indeed only run a nuclear power program. If they liberalise seriously it even removes them as a threath even if they do build nuclear weapons. But that will probably take generations.

The nightmare scenario is of mullas afraid of change initiates a war on USA or Israel and use a beginning defeat as an excuse to use nuclear wepons on large soft partly military tagets like ports or airfields.

The Iranians are 10 years away from developing nuclear weapons.

No, the US is more concerned with the opening of Iran's internet, Euro-based oil bourse in March next year.

Any attack to stop this going ahead will most definitely be based on the argument that Iran is just about to make some nuclear weapons.

I would predict that not long after we've had a nice, warm, fuzzy christmas and new year, the US administration will start the hype machine about Iran's nuclear weapons plans, building up to a crescendo around the end of February ready for the March strike.

If my prediction comes true, it will be one of America's biggest mistakes.

1st - I totally agree with your scenario.
2nd - Consider this: Under the Bush doctrine of 'pre-eminate strike' if 'imminent danger' is detected (or thought to be detected), Iran currently has ample reason to start a war with the U.S.. Of course, if they employed the same excues for their war as we did with Iraq, no one would listen to them.
3rd - If the peak really is comming, what ethics are involved? Is it reasonable to use military force to ensure economic stability? These are questions for debate.
Old news, old ideas, almost old issues, except for Iran's oil.
I really can't fathom Iran being the one to initiate a war with the US and/or Israel. If anything, it would far more likely be the other way around, with Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program being the excuse.

Because we are bogged down in Iraq, such a war would be almost totally restricted to a massive bombing campaign. However, unless we nuke them off the map, no amount of conventional bombing is going to bring the Iranian government to its knees.  Yes, it will make them mad, very mad.

It would seem reasonable to expect Iran to retaliate by 1) immediately shutting down all of its oil exports thus immediately removing 4 million barrels per day from the world oil market,  and 2) attack US- and UK-bound tankers going through the Straits of Hormuz with land-based cruise missiles.  Regardless of our air superiority, such an attack would not be very difficult, as those missile launchers are easy to hide in the rugged terrain of the Iranian coast, and a super tanker makes quite a juicy easy target. The sinking of a single super tanker would throw the world oil markets into total panic and cause economic havoc throughout the West.

Thus, an attack on Iran would be folly for the US, but the powers that be are just stupid and twisted enough to try it.

You forgot to mention the 150,000 hostages; I mean troops we have next door in Iraq.  The Shia in Iraq are mostly sitting out of the game and letting the Sunni carry on with the insurgency.  Attacking the Ayatollahs in Iran would tick off the Iraqi Shia to no end.  

Imagine you are the American commander in Iraq.  On a normal, sunny day, you cannot secure the road from the Baghdad Airport to the Green Zone.  Now, your team just attacked Iran and the Iranians are sending, oh, four divisions your way.  It is a straight shot from the border across friendly (for them!) territory.  

Helicopters are useless because the Iranians have shipped in gobs of shoulder fired Surface-to-Air missiles and passed them out like beads at Marti Gras.  Any fixed winged aircraft have to come from out of country because of the same reason (they gotta fly `real slow' on landing approach).  And don't count on the US Navy's help from the Persian Gulf.  Iran has some nasty anti-ship cruise missiles from Russia called SS-N-22, Sunburn.  They fly at Mach 3, got a 320 kg warhead, and no one knows how many Iran has.

Let's not forget fuel.  There may be gigabarrels of the black stuff under your feet, but those pissed off Iraqis are NOT going to let a single fuel truck into your gates.  Aircraft don't fly.  Trucks don't drive.  Armored vehicles don't fight.  Hell, even generators don't work too well without the stuff.  Bye, bye air conditioning, computers, anything else that puts the `modern' Army ahead of the game.

Let us review.  Your forces are spread across the country in either large `Enduring Bases' or their satellite compounds.  Every single person in the most heavily armed patch of dirt on the planet is mad as hell with you.  A nearby country with 63 million people is invading.  You have no air support.  There is no naval support.  The rest of the world is mad at your country.  And you have some 150,000 people depending on you...

Anyone want the job?  

Dave's excellent post does bear out the fact that Iran's desire to develop nuclear capacity for peaceful purposes of power generation is eminently justifiable by the hard scientific facts.  Nevertheless, it probably is true (in my opinion, anyhow) that Iran is concealing an ulterior motive of acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities also.  Now this deceit on Iran's part is arguably blameworthy (I would argue that it is; as a lover of truth, I would say that deliberately propagating falsehood is always wrong).  But who can justly blame the Iranians for wanting nuclear capabilities as a means of self-defence against manifest US tendencies to engage in unprovoked aggression against other nations?