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33 comments on Ignore Depletion At Your Peril

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peakearl on November 30, 2005 - 1:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My gosh - I'm never quite ready to see such Ivory tower idiocy coming out of a place like Stanford, although I guess I should expect it. They cleary have no idea at all what has been happening on the ground in terms of real production/depletion/decline of FIP and the absence of significant new finds. Talk about theoretical Arctic fields that wouldn't produce for 15 years at best saving us somehow - leaves me scratching my head.
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step back on November 30, 2005 - 1:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I do not think they are that clueless. They plan to have additional lectures, one on global warming and CO2 emissions, and one on alternative energy.

I am merely giving my impressions of their talk, I am not speaking on their behalf. I think the basic message was, Yes there is a problem, but we should not "panic" and start a war where we (China versus USA) start killing each other over the oil. There are are a lot of other carbon sources out there.

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peakearl on November 30, 2005 - 2:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I guess I reacted to the notion that there could be 40 years to work this out. The efficiency argument makes no sense. The issue is demand, which continues to rise despite efficiency improvements. To deal with the problem we need to see reduction in demand, and if efficiency accomplishes this then all is well. But so far this hasn't been the case.

We also need to remember we're not talking about running out, but reaching peak production with subsequent decline. I think it's good to present all sides of any debate, but I am concerned that the signals are pointing increasingly to an imminent problem, and people need to be aware of this.

I appreciate your time and effort in documenting the discussion. I agree that having this discussion in public is a big step toward increasing awareness and having people doing their own investigations into the matter. I certainly agree with the concern that we don't go to war over oil - we need to pull together if we are to achieve any real answers.

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step back on November 30, 2005 - 3:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
They plan to have additional lectures, one on global warming and CO2 emissions, and one on alternative energy.

For TOD readers in the Bay Area, the next Stanford lecture is scheduled for Feb. 21, 2006 and entitled Carbon, Climate & Consequences

the first lecture was given at the Arrillaga Alumni Center and was open to the public

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Charles on November 30, 2005 - 7:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Do you have a link with time/location for the upcoming lectures? I don't see them on their lecture events page.
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step back on November 30, 2005 - 7:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
No sorry, they posted it as a slide during the Q&A session
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Davidh on December 3, 2005 - 7:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The story is posted at energy bulletin. But I think I should mention that the speculation that neither Amos nor Steven were really speaking their minds is probably a valid one. At least Amos was holding back some of his true opinions. For examples check out this globalpublicmedia interview: http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/417 (transcript and audio). Or maybe he has been swayed back from his original positions. Who knows. I loved it anyway.
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step back on December 3, 2005 - 8:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
David,
Congratulations on getting your report published by Energy Bulletin.

It's tough to accurately report on 2 hours of fast paced lecturing as well as on reactions by the audience. It would be most interesting if there were some psychology majors in the audience and if they could interview fellow students on how the argumentative styles of Nur and Gorelick swayed them one way or the other.

Certainly, Gorelick was the more youthfully charasmatic and energetic of the two professors. But then again, Mother Nature is not moved by debate style.

I noticed that someone was filming the whole thing from the back of the room. Do you know if that film is going to be aired at a later date?

Good job.

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acomfort on December 5, 2005 - 5:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
 David,

I didn't know there was another group on the Peninsula discussing peak
oil.
I live close to Palo alto and would like to hear more about your gatherings.
  My wife and I are currently attending monthly Post Carbon group
meetings held in the Green Party office in South San Francisco.   We
attended the Stanford Oil Depletion lecture and were unimpressed other
than with the number of attendees.  There are a few other local
residents that would probably be interested in what your group is
doing.  

You and anyone else interested in PO are invited to the Post Carbon
Outpost meetings in South San Francisco.  I hope you will consider
attending so that the two groups can exchange ideas on living in the
Bay Area and preparing for the expected PO problems.  The next meeting
is December 16, at 212 Miller Ave. SSF 7-9PM.  The SSF group is new and
its meetings are very informal also.

Tom Dickerman ( "Dickerman" <dickermn@earthlink.net> ) is the person
responsible for setting up the Post Carbon meeting in SSF.  

Hope to hear from you.

- Arlen

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33 comments on Ignore Depletion At Your Peril

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