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12 comments on So, if I grow a crack under my neighbors fence, is it still my oil?

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Bubba on November 6, 2005 - 5:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Step back,

You are confusing the issue of what I was trying to address.  My question was whether anyone at the TOD had written a basic primer for non-experts as to the definitions of reserves.  What is considered proved from an SEC standpoint and hence publically traded companies must adhere to these guidelines for reporting purposes - vs. what the same companies actually "think" is in the ground vs what countries like Saudi Arabia are able to publish as their "proved" reserves.  Understanding the standards that different reporting entities are governed by helps people make sense of various comparisons.  

I guess in some sense, in a round about fashion, you are making my point.  There are reserves and "reserves".  However, we can characterize the information in its reporting context and make some sense of it.

 

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Dave Cohen on November 6, 2005 - 9:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, I think that getting at the truth of these reserves numbers revolves around what the National Oil Companies (NOCs) in various countries want to tell us, and what they know, versus reality. Aramco is the most egregious example but Russia as another. As far as I can see, there's no transparency in their numbers--all we can do is watch the production figures as time passes.

I use the BP 2005 numbers for proved reserves on a country by country basis. Here are their 2005 report production figures.

The problem is that I don't know what the relationship is between the SEC rules as in linked above to the BP reporting and I'm not sure if any of this bears any relationship with reality according to NOC reporting. Here are BP's guidelines for defining their terms with respect to "reserves" and "resources" As far as I can see, estimates of "undiscoverd resources" are akin to predictions made from a Ouija Board.

Then, occasionally I'll look at stuff like BP says global oil reserves growth stalled in 2004 and wonder what's going on.
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step back on November 7, 2005 - 2:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Bubba,
  Those were not my definitions.
  I still have no clear idea what a "reserve" is,
  let alone what a "proven" reserve is.

Those definitions were plucked from the identified sites, ... obviously with a little spin added by meaux.

From an oil man's point of view, what is a "proven reserve" and how clearly does it tell us whether the unseen but alleged oil "down there" actually is there and actually is recoverable in an "economic" sense?

It seems to me that the plucked definitions are hardly definitions at all, just new mud water tossed on top of old mud water so as to make the situation crystal murky.

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Bubba on November 7, 2005 - 9:33am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
So that will be the focus of a future post of mine. What are reserves and when you see a number what should it tell you.
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12 comments on So, if I grow a crack under my neighbors fence, is it still my oil?

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