When I posted about IEA's Resouces To Reserves report a while back, reporter Adam Porter pointed out that

Repeating a figure they first used in the IEA World Energy Outlook report they estimate that the total necessary investment cost "for worldwide upstream operations and transport [of oil]" by 2030 will amount to "$5 trillion."

That works out at roughly $564.5 million dollars a day, between now and 1 January 2030.

Actually, the press release now says "World energy resources are adequate to meet this demand, but investment of $17 trillion [under their business as usual Reference Scenario] will be needed to bring these resources to consumers". Then a bit later, Porter quoted Colin Campbell

"It is an absolute masterpiece," he stated. " A masterpiece of telling the truth in such a selective manner so as to get the juxtapositions quite right. All in order to mislead and confuse the situation. After all the best way to lie is to tell the truth, just in a manner that creates a wholly false impression of what is actually going on."

"The report is an absolute confession of `peak oil'," he said. "But at the same time the text goes out of its way to deny it. Really, it's a brilliant document. It takes immense skill and a marvellous command of language that allows [OECD] governments and oil companies to hide like this."

I am now convinced that Campbell is absolutely right based on this latest release on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA--includes Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). Why? From the press release for the report (with inline comments):

"The importance of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to global oil and gas markets cannot be underestimated. These countries have vast resources, but these resources must be further developed. Investment should not be delayed [after 2005].

[comment--No kidding, this acknowledges the non-OPEC peak by 2010. New projects in the MENA countries have no hope of being in production before then and must start right now despite obvious worldwide shortages of rigs, pipelines and other infrastructure..]

In the MENA region, domestic energy demand is driven by surging populations, economic growth and heavy energy subsidies. Primary energy demand more than doubles by 2030. At the same time, MENA oil production will increase by 75% by 2030 and natural gas production will treble, allowing more gas exports. The region's share in global oil production will increase from 35% today to 44% in 2030. However, this means the countries of the Middle East and North Africa would need to invest, on average, $56 billion per year in energy infrastructure. The level of upstream oil investment required will be more than twice that of the last decade.

[comment--It is totally misleading for IEA to talk about the year 2030 because it's obvious they are in a panic about the period 5 years or so out from now. It is quite insane to be talking about the year 2030 in any case]

But OK, here's another important part of IEA's multifaceted delusional break with reality. I am referring to their comments on Climate Change. I believe this speaks for itself.

Oil and gas imports from the Middle East and North Africa will rise, creating greater dependence for IEA countries and large importers like China and India. Energy-related CO2 emissions also climb -- by 2030, they [under the business as usual Reference Scenario] will be 52% higher than today. "These projected trends have important implications and lead to a future that is not sustainable - from an energy-security or environmental perspective. We must change these outcomes and get the planet onto a sustainable energy path," added Mr. Ramsay [IEA Deputy Executive Director].

"The G8 Plan of Action, agreed at the Gleneagles Summit in July 2005, launched detailed initiatives to promote cleaner energy and combat the impact of climate change. The IEA was asked to play an important role. This strong global commitment indicates that governments are already adopting alternative policies - such as those in the World Alternative Policy Scenario - to achieve the G8 goals," explained Mr. Ramsay. Under this Scenario, global oil and gas demand growth is lower, but the world continues to rely heavily on MENA oil and gas. CO2 emissions fall 16% below the level of the Reference [business as usual] Scenario - but still increase around 30% by 2030.

Sustainable energy path? Greenhouse gas emissions rise 30% overall but are 16% less than they would be if the Alternative Energy Scenario is not followed by 2030. Still, the key right now is to coerce those price-fixing, lazy, and incompetent Arabs, Persians and assorted other followers of Islam to increase their own investment and allow foreign investment in order to increase production now--the quicker the better. Where's that Alternative Policy Scenario? Perhaps it's residing in the same place where Saddam Hussein's Weapons of Mass Destruction are hidden.

Now, any competent psychologist will tell you that making sense of or sorting out fantasies like these is a very difficult task indeed. So, I can not pretend to know what these IEA people are thinking.