Refineries are expensive, require extensive permitting, and are faced with political opposition from local neighborhoods.  Furthermore, to be profitable they must amortize over many years.  If oil is peaking the numbers for a new refinery may not work.

Most new oil discoveries will be a lower grade, heavier and more poisonous stuff requiring different refinery setups than for light, pure crude.

It makes some sense for countries like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to build refineries and capture the refining profit.  They know exactly what refineries they will need for their crude.  They have no permitting hassles or local opposition.

Why should the U.S. build additional refining capacity for oil coming from abroad?  Here today, gone tomorrow.  I'd much rather see those investment dollars be spent for alternatives such as nuclear, wind, solar, and battery research.

On balance it realy doesn't matter if production is still rising at the moment in total because only the ligt sweet crude counts in the global energy picture... By the time refinieries are up and running I suspect we may have peaked in both heavy and light oil grades and therefore although the overall oil peak may not yet have arrived it is quite likely that the refineable oeak is here now...