First, I seriously doubt a combination of new, smller fields will come close to replacing Cantarell production even in 2006. We will see.

Regarding Exxon, It was just last Feb or March when they capped off their most expensive, deep exploratory well, a $100 million well in the Caspian. It came up completely dry - no commercial hydrocarbons at all. So much for their wonderful computer models that will solve all our problems.

Actually, I guess it was last October 2004 when Exxon had the above failure (how time flies). See the link if curious:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2004/10/a_very_disappoi.html
Re: ExxonMobil, so now you see that computer modelling of what is supposed to be there really is not in many cases (here, the Caspian Sea). As far as Canterell goes, it is in decline, that is irreversible and that's all there is to it. Case closed.