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GAIA Host Collective
"Oh, by the way...I've almost tripled my money on Halliburton in the last few years. HAHAHAHAHA. But it seems I want a little more. Any recommendations folks? I'm only asking cuz I know the best minds are here. "
Bubba had an article that I can not find now that spurred me to take action. I had already started to conclude that my traditional 401k investments were going to take about 700 years to get me to retirement at their current return.
Here's my novice investing strategy, and people can critique as desired:
The traditional buy-hold advice of the past may not be the best for the future. So I am taking a more active/aggressive role in my retirement planning. I am a bit of an adrenalin junkie anyways. Modest success so far, we'll see what 2006 holds:
- Investments in tangible stuff: planning to add solar panels to house, 12-18 months; putting a plan together to get other family members to join on modest purchase of farmland. This is a 2-5 year project; in the meantime I am trying to benefit from world trends as best I can.
- Portfolio reallocation: I already had about 30% in foreign funds. Am increasing to 50-60%. Am looking for Australia fund if anyone has suggestions.
- Stock: Learning how to trend and swing trade to take advantage of sideways and downtrending volatility. Learning how to short sell. 10-15%
- Subscribing to an option play service with focus on increasingly volatile indexes. 5-10% allocation.
- Downtrending dollar: precious metals & foreign currency funds, 15-20%
- Bonds: 0%.
My conservative advisor tells me I am insane. I say it is a reasonably diversified approach to an increasingly insane world.In addition to Bubba's energy company advice, track companies that will benefit from higher energy prices, e.g. WEBEX.
I track one alternative energy fund PBW, that so far hasn't done anything.
Augmenting Bubba's energy advice was a book on the downtrending dollar. I'm sure everyone knows the drill on that, but here's their diversification advice to benefit, or at least not lose as much of your shirt as otherwise:
- learn how to short sell mortgage pool funds (#1 recommendation)
- invest in energy producers who have something to sell and have diversified holdings not just in U.S. (same as Bubba's advice) This is the core of my swing trading portfolio, and I will both go long and short when there are speculative bubbles. so far I am making money, but I've messed up some short sells because I'm still learning.
- move a significant % of stock portfolio to foreign markets. author was very bullish on Australia because of large natural resource base to sell to China.
- Learn how to short the dollar index. easier than learning a bunch of currency exchange plays.
- Invest in gold. The book goes on to list several ways to be diversified in precious metals.
I thought the book made more sense than alot of the books that just say dollar's going down, buy gold. I'm curious what others think, basically, it's not enough to just do domestic energy company plays, you've got to combine that with an awareness of where the dollar is going, which is why Buffet and Gates have both moved alot of their capital out of America.Sorry to go on so long, curious what others think; I'm just an amateur.
I think there is a down side risk to the longer term future oil contracts if we get an oil induced depression or housing induced depression and demand destruction falls faster than the supply we could end up with cheaper oil in the future this is now a risk IMO. This will also affect any enery stock you own...
I think to make money now you have to look out side the box.
Gold is a great inflation hedge and even at its current price I think it is still a good buy.
Productive farm land if you can buy it at a good price.
Wheat, corn, oats etc are at record low prices considering the fosil fuel imputs required to grow this stuff. I dont think the market has made the connection yet between high energy and high food prices which means there may well be money to be made betting this industry will have a large price increase fairly soon.
On Currency hedging I think the market is being manipulated a few years ago there where some prosecutions I still think its a dirty market and will not trade the stuff again.
Good luck.
I was reading somewhere about how many overseas markets have had a real boom lately - I hesitate to use the word bubble, but that was the implication from what I was reading. China in particular seems to have a bubble in their economy.
One danger of foreign stocks is that if it is a foreign multinational that sells a lot of stuff into the U.S., that if the dollar tanks then so do their sales.
I have been thinking about some of these issues myself, but the survival strategy really depends upon how things play out. Will we see high inflation, for example (my guess is that we will)? Is it even possible for the dollar to tank without taking down the entire world economy?
This comes back to a point that has been made here a couple of times about how there is simply too much investment money around the globe looking for things to invest in.
I am almost inclined to think that the best strategy for survival is to eliminate as much personal debt as possible - including mortgage debt, and to make 'investments' in things like solar energy for your home so you don't get whacked with high utility bills in the future.
If not, think of moving or getting a bolthole somewhere safer. When I looked 2 years ago decent 3 bed houses could be had in both the above places for $100k. Galena is minor summer tourist land, you could rent it out meanwhile. You need enough land to feed your family and provide heating / cooking fuel biomass.
Be competent at growing vegetables and DO IT! There is no substitute for experience, nor for food. Chickens are very worthwhile, too. Learn how to save seed.
Wood etc burning heating / cooking is the most resilient / flexible in all curcimstances.
Electricity is nice for lighting, refridgeration, accessing all the useful data on your PC (presume internet disrupted / gone). I'm not an expert, solar is probably easiest but water / wind might be more long term if you have convenient water / wind, especially if shared.
Short term...
Gold and the metals will correct downwards soon, you should take the opportunity to buy gold around $450 to $470, silver below $8. They will bounce much higher, especially when the US$ drops = soon since the overseas profit repatriation tax discount window is unwinding imminently.
If you can short markets and dare bet for a quick profit I would short gold Monday (it's about $530) and hold your nerve even if it goes up by $10 to $15, take half your profit at about $475, maybe risk the rest on it dropping to $550 to $560, but if gold starts bouncing back up at that time do close your shorts and buy.
Copper is funny atm, it could keep flying till 22nd December (a Chinese problem) but it should correct by 25% by March.
Stocks: I think this next week will see the top for the indices, for a few months at least, possibly several years, the stock markets have gone sideways for over 2 years and that is partly due to intervention, all the risk is to the downside. The Xmas rally happened early, I expect a 2 to 5% decline by yearend and a 5 to 10% decline by March.
Energy: should go up till late March. I see minimal possibility for price reduction in energy commodities before then and probably 10 to 20% increase. Thereafter it depends on your personal view - if you think CERA are right expect a decline to $50 oil etc, otherwise expect prices to keep bobbing up.
The US$ seems to be making a top. It might struggle weakly higher, possibly till as late as May if the Fed raise rates 4 more times (Bernanke will have to do at least one rise to show he has balls = 3 more rises, unless something dire happens before March). When it starts to trend down it will drop at least 5 to 6%.
I don't know enough about individual US stocks to advise on specifics, nor buying and selling commodities or currencies, I'm not an investor - I gamble by spread betting financials.
Hope my short term thoughts help with your plans. One last idea: if and when the US homogenises its auto diesel fuel regulations (until then diesel fuel is likely to be at an absurd price premium) get a diesel vehicle - you will be able to brew your own fuel from cooking oil ;)
Every time that oil has increased by 50% within 2 years the US has gone into a subsequent recession. Every time the Fed has raised rates 7 or more times consecutively the US has gone into a recession. This coming week the Fed will raise rates for the 13th consecutive time and the odds are they will raise them 2 or 3 times more thereafter (unless the recession happens first ;) ).
Keep your money in small denomination notes - they produce more heat per notional value.
http://www.financialsense.com/index.html
It has articles from all sorts of perspectives, often opposing, though there is a tendency towards peak-oil-ness and goldbugness. I particularly like the saturday audio files, once you get to know the regulars you'll pick up unspoken nuances, too. The site is HUGE, most of it is pretty good and some is excellent.