http://www.worldwatch.org/features/vsow/2005/10/05/  
Grain Yields Rise, But No Respite for the Hungry

grain In 2004, global grain production broke 2 billion tons for the first time in history, marking a 9-percent increase from the 2003 level. Also in 2004, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, the number of hungry people around the world increased for the first time since 1970. Starvation now kills more than 5 million children each year.

The biggest factor behind this record grain production in 2004 was an increase in average yields: with the same amount of hectares for planting, farmers were able to harvest more crops. However, most people go hungry not because of a global food shortage but because they are too poor to buy food or to obtain the land, water, and other resources needed to produce it.

Vital Signs                          
This is a pdf file or purchase. 96 to 03 leveling off re grain production. 85 peak per person, but fairly level. Of concern is grain stocks decreasing since 60, possibly by choice.   The tractor, irrigation, chemical fertilizeres/pesticides/herbicides and some hybrid grains, particularily rice are how we have matched hyper-expotiental growth. All these are so oil/gas dependant. The 2005 grain increase was a good year probably due to weather ,good in the right places.

And manny are so poor due to civil war and diktatorships.

One of the largest problems is not peak oil making fuel for growing food scarse in itself but the scarsity making it easier to start conflicts. Wars eat resources and is in the way for distribution and trade and that gives starvation.

The political risks worry me more then the physical problems.