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40 comments on Listening to the cacophony and trying to make some sense

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Dave Cohen on December 8, 2005 - 1:56am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Bubba, nice post.

Where do you put these CERA (Daniel Yergin, etc.) in your list of price predictors? Whose ass are they kissing, anyway? Or, as is often the case with people, do they believe their own bullshit? Clearly, they are making money.
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GreyZone on December 8, 2005 - 1:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
They believe what they are saying because they get paid for it. And because they get paid for it and the "extremists" don't get paid for "extreme" opinions, this is "market validation" of their opinion, hence making them correct in saying it again and again, for which they will get paid again and again, and hence validated again and again. The physical realities of the universe don't even register with these people. They live in an artificially created fish pond of dollars. Until those dollars dry up and blow away, they will refuse to look outside their pond.
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wkwillis on December 8, 2005 - 4:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I wish this wasn't true. God knows how much worse the hurricanes are going to be next year.
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peakearl on December 8, 2005 - 8:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
In February of 2004, CERA predicted 2004 average oil prices to be $30 per barrel, to drop to $28/bl in 2005. They have a pretty poor record that they don't seem to be held to.
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Bubba on December 8, 2005 - 11:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Dave,

I can't seem to find any CERA price predictions in the public domain.  This is probably because they have paying customers who pay for that forecast (as bad as it probably is).  However, this is one of their most recent articles on supply.

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peakearl on December 9, 2005 - 2:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This was from their website, but unfortunately the link was taken off  about 2-3 months ago. They remove links as they get older. The link was to the summary of a report they published in Feb 2004, similar to the summary their recent report suggesting plenty of supply (you could then buy the full report for around $2500). I paid close attention at the time, and am confident that these were their numbers, but can't link to the original any more - perhaps conveniently for CERA. I guess I should download and keep those things, but at the time I wasn't involved in anything more than keeping myself up to date.

Keep looking in Feb, they may have a new outlook summary out.

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40 comments on Listening to the cacophony and trying to make some sense

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