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40 comments on Listening to the cacophony and trying to make some sense

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LevinK on December 8, 2005 - 1:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Absolutely.
I could add that IMO there was some sort of bubble in oil prices up until Katrina. There were rising fears for the future supply that boosted demand for futures so price rose quite above what would have rather been. What happens now is a normal "correction" of the markets like the ones we constantly see in Forex. Except that in a much less speculative market like the oil such "waves" have much higher time span.

In addition 1mln.bpd (somewhere I read that it is even less now) is a mere 1.2% of the world production. I can see a lot more of "fat" demand (and not just in the US) dropping to accommodate such shortages. Another important factor is the perception that these 1 mln.bpd. will come online sometime in the future, which stops speculators from being too bullish in the short to medium term.

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Bubba on December 8, 2005 - 10:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
1.2% of world supply is a huge amount when supply is already tight.  Moreover, much of this is relatively light oil that is desired by refiners. On top of that, some of this oil won't be back on stream until the next hurricane season.  Some of it will never come back on.

If you layer this on a 2% to 5% worldwide decline, and the fact that other projects (Thunderhorse for example) continue to be delayed, one starts to wonder where the extra supply is coming from.

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Dan Ur on December 9, 2005 - 8:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thrid-world countries, and the reserves that were built just like the oil was over years.

 Give it another bad year and all bets are off, the demand destruction has to take center stage.

 Gvien that the Thrid-world will be almost as low as it can go, and the reserve Owners will not want to part with stocks, you will see demand distruction in the bigger countries.  The USA comes first, especially if price goes up too.

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40 comments on Listening to the cacophony and trying to make some sense

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