I agree, it is simply too complex to predict - not that I'm trashing attempts to understand it.  There is too much bad data and missing data.  In the end, we are left with using our best judgment - as we always are, really.  I don't believe all the tales of new liquid sources will bear fruit in the near term, or some ever, and I don't think I want some of them to (environmental costs).   My guess at this point is that we'll have a rocky time of it the next 10yrs, but that we probably will not see catastrophic collapse.  But we will certainly see changes.  I see major changes in our society and economy since the 1970s, and at lest some of that is attributed to the changing oil picture.  

On the other hand there is always the possibility of a few major events that could change everything - attacking Iran, coup in Saudi Arabia, or more likely something no one has anticipated.  And I figure the GOM will be continually battered by hurricanes - maybe not every year, but if it got hit hard every 3 it would prevent it from truly recovering.  How could one possibly translate this into a price per barrel?  When I look at the realm of reasonable scenarios, I see far more reasons for it to go up than I do for it to go down.  

Lastly, when I look at the energy, environmental, economic, and political situations both separately and in combination, it gives me no comfort in what our future holds.  And a collapse in one area could improve the situation in another, making prediction that much harder.