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74 comments on Adam Smith on Globalization

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Freddy Hutter on December 21, 2005 - 2:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hey Stuart, Real GDP was announced at 4.1% this morning.  I have been a proponent of sustainable grwoth thru 2006/2007.  With respect to our disagreement on potential USA growth wrt Miles Data on Oct 25th when u said:

"We'll see who's right :-) Maybe driving and economic activity have become uncoupled recently, but I doubt it. (I'm not saying zero growth btw - I have no way to be that precise. I just think the growth rate is bound to drop pretty significantly for a while.)"

Are u ready to say "uncle"?!!

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Stuart Staniford on December 21, 2005 - 2:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm willing to say I don't understand what's happening right now :-).  However, my prediction was about next year, not this (since I was basically working off an annual time series in which the GDP response often lags the miles data).  The situation might be clarified by more miles data, but unfortunately the FHWA has fallen behind.  Though they do now have September up, so maybe I'll do a post about that sometime soon.
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Oil CEO on December 22, 2005 - 3:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The growth number depends 100% on the price of oil. If Oil goes up, growth will not increase. Not now. We need to become much more efficient for that to be possible. So for now, Stuart has the advantage in this argument.
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