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84 comments on November IEA global production
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84 comments on November IEA global production
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In addition to corn I have been looking at some numbers on soybeans and potatoes.
The US harvests about 2.5 billion bushels of soybeans annually, and about 23 million tons of potatoes. Potatoes yield about 25-30 gallons of ethanol/ton or 688 million gallons of ethanol about .5% of our gas consumption.
There has been much talk about bio-diesel from soybeans. The only numbers I can find are that soybeans yield about 9.5 to 10 pounds of oil/bushel. How much bio-diesel will 10 pounds of soybean oil yield?? 1.5 Gallons max, that would make 3.75 billion gallons of bio-diesel. Our annual distillate consumption is 4.5*365*42=69 billion gallons. Soybean bio-diesel would only supply 5.4% of our distillate needs. 3.75/69=.0543.
I hope this can put in perspective our alternate liquid fuels problem. There is no way the USA can ever supply even 10% our liquid fuel with ethanol & biodiesel.
Other than massive nuclear and wind and solar, I don't see what the energy source is going to be once oil goes into serious decline, and that does not address the transportation fuel issue unless we replace our transportation infrastructure. And we have not started yet. Using less energy is the only solution. If we have 20 years, maybe we can do it, but if the top of that curve keeps tipping over....
But don't worry, because I heard on the radio this morning that the Saudis have been pumping like mad, and have produced so much oil that they expect to throttle back early next year, and the gas prices will go down further (back up to $2.29 this morning), and the economy will take off. But there's no need to worry about inflation in spite of all the jobs that will be created. The FCC really needs to work on blocking those broadcasts from other dimensions....
I'm with you on biofuels. Love the concept. Just can't get the numbers to add. It's a last resort idea and requires huge reduction in total fuel consumption.
I understand that Minnesota has enacted a 2% bio-diesel law that requires nearly all diesel fuel to be blended with 2% bio-diesel. Now I don't know how much nearly is, but here is a web-site to explain it further.
http://www.mda.state.mn.us/biodiesel/b2/default.htm
Here is a web-site of oil yield for oil-bearing crops.
http://journeytoforever.org/biodiesel_yield.html#ascend
So we're moving from the theoretical to the practical, at least as a demonstration. Here's the rest.
You get about twice as much energy from wind to wheels using batteries compared to using hydrogen.
If what you say is true, then we are heading down a dead end. Why are smart people throwing time and money away on hydrogen if batteries are the answer? Is it that they just don't know? Do you have a link to a source that proves what you say? I'd like to know because then I'll pass it along to the folks downtown who are building this project.
There are dozens (the calculations are simple), but you might want to start with Future Pundit's roundup before you take my word for it.
I try to retain some sense of optimism about all of this, that either by building an abundance of new nuclear power plants we'll be able to have enough electricity AND stay warm; that Stirling engine solar farms will deliver the solar promise without the drawbacks of traditional PV; that hydrogen will replace kerosene to keep our air fleet flying; that electric cars will keep us all in motion... but when you think of the folly, the stupidity, the blindness, the corruption, the deceit and the wishful thinking that is going on everywhere, I can't help but think, We Are So Totally Screwed. Anyway, it's Christmas Eve, so Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you. I've got to get into my Jeep and go to the bank 15 miles from here to deposit a check so I can buy some plastic crap for the neighbors' children while looking at Christmas lights which I used to enjoy which I now know are using up coal that we're all going to need in the future and wondering all the while just how much my house is going to drop in value when fuel becomes so expensive that people abandon the countryside and flock to the cities to stay warm and earn a living under futuristic Dickensian conditions from which we'll never escape. Merry Christmas!
Even the use of sustainable cellulose residue (instead of food crops) can only achieve 14.5 billion gallons (345 million barrels) of ethanol annually. The clear message here is that liquid fuels consumption has to go down. The clearest way to achieve that is migrating to electric transportation which can be supported by solar, wind, nuclear, and clean coal electric generating processes.
We can achieve a sustainable yet advanced technological civilization with what we know today. No, it won't look like what we have today but it's still better than the alternative of collapse. The only question is whether we will do so or not?
However what if sugar cane, coconut and date palms WORLD WIDE gets shunted into fuels. This has already started in Indonesia and Brazil. We already import gasoline and ethanol and we have a big appetite for transportation fuels. I agree again with you that this still won't replace a very large percentage of petroleum. But it could mask declines for awhile in the reports.
Do you have numbers for Canola or Mustard seed?
Soy beans is the worst example to give and in my mind, are a net-energy loss or close to it.
The numbers that I have seen (from coastal areas) say both canola and mustard yield close to 100 gallons per acre. And they also are a great rotation crop for wheat to replenish the soil, so farmers must grow these (or something else) anyway.
There is no way the USA can ever supply even 10% our liquid fuel with ethanol & biodiesel.
This is a very bold statement. We haven't even begun to tap ethanol from wood yet and it is an energy gain and can be processed from existing paper mills, but a cheaper method must be worked out. The average car also get 21 MPG, if this number ever got to 42 (and it will with price) 10% would be more like 6-7% currently.
Here is a web-site of oil yield for oil-bearing crops.
http://journeytoforever.org/biodiesel_yield.html#ascend
Really though it's all speculation, countries that currently use ethanol/biodiesel to power a large % of their combustion, will start to have problems if you are right. OTOH they will suceed and keep showing economic growth if I am right.
Brazil will be the first test case, 40% of their transportation fuel comes from ethanol. Results will come foward shortly. Same with France and Germany who use close to 5% biodiesel. (and they don't use soy)
I'm sure Pomona has data and I can point to many other engineers with data as well.
Just like peak oil, no one really knows when and everyone can use data to claim they know. But claiming the US will never have ethanol/biodiesel power 10% of our transportation, is a rather bold call when other countries have surpassed or are closing in on that number.