I've described some Japanese techniques for conserving natural gas here.

It's really not a big deal. I know Americans who have reduced their NG consumption to 15% of what it once was with negligible effects on their lifestyle.

Dec 21 Asia Pulse - Indonesia's Minister of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) Sugiharto has called for a review of the policy on natural gas supply, which gives priority to the production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ignores the fertilizer industry's demand for gas as a basic material in fertilizer production.

Speaking to reporters while inaugurating an organic fertilizer factory and a nitrogen, phosphor and potassium fertilizer factory in the PT Petrokimia compound in Gresik early this week, he cited the need to increase the portion of gas supply to the fertilizer industry to support the government's efforts to raise the input of farmland and improve farmers' welfare.  

Indonesia is one of the world's key natural gas producers, but fertilizer plants in the country have received an inadequate supply of gas, causing them to be unable to produce fertilizer in accordance with their installed capacity, he said, adding that such a condition has caused farmers to face a shortage of fertilizer.

Citing an example, he pointed out that gas supply to PT Pupuk Petrokimia Gresik, a fertilizer plant in Gresik, East Java, meets only 80 per cent of the plant's need for this basic material, therefore the plant can only produce about 400,000 tons of urea, falling short of its designed capacity of 480,000 tons a year.

He also mentioned the falling resources in Indonesia.

Concerning the potential of fuel deposits available in Indonesia, he said survey results reveal that the fossil energy source is estimated to be entirely used up in the coming 11 years. Gas reserves and coal deposits are estimated to be depleted within the coming 36 years and 150 years respectively. So Indonesia still has enough gas reserves to back the fertilizer industry in the country, he said.

Not pointed specifically at Indonesia but I wonder what the typical despot will choose, Big $$ from OECD in his pocket or food for his slaves/people?

In the larger picture I think there's still lots of gas out there but in the short run,  Limited processing, Very limited Cargo Capacity and limited port locations (aka nimby).  The few shipyards that build LNG shipping are booked up with orders for dedicated route ships.

Question I have is, with 100% gulf production recovery will we have enough gas next winter?  In a more worse case what if we have another damaging hurricane?

Oh, wait...

In my understanding, in market based pricing, a falling supply will cause prices to rise.  The rising prices will either cause suppliers to come up with any additional supply they can find, or more likely will cause consumers to cut back.  Consumers are already cutting back.  Industrial consumers are shutting down and leaving for places with cheaper supplies.  Consumers can cut back a lot more than people think, though again, they will probably start screaming about the pain.  At what point does the public pain cause the politicians to switch to rationing?  Or, from the other side, at what point do so many producers nationalize production that the only way to get supplies to market is to go to war for them?

I think inflation, dollar devaluation, and recession are more likely responses than capitalism failing.  Market pricing is much older than the oil age.  Of course, if there's enough inflation and recession, we'll start reconsidering capitalism again, as we did in the depression.  People are even less willing to accept severe changes in the labor market than they are in the energy market.  As many have pointed out, large changes in the energy market will most likely result in large changes in the labor market at some point.

But there is no guarantee that supply and demand meets at a price where people are comfortable or even surviving.

Please do not mix theories about how markets work with naive almost religious ideas about markets allways providing comfortable lives for almost everybody.

A technically well functioning market is most of the time the most efficient way known to get limited resources to where they are most usefull and thus to get resources invested where they can grow.

This is most often very good in both good and bad times. I think abandoning market principles and laws supporting working markets, especially physical markets would be a terrible mistake during times when companies need to go bankrupt fast to free resources and other companies and other infrastructure need too be built fast.

The larger percentage of people that can be fed and find a future however poor in a working market economy the easier it probably is for the state to keep the rest alive in hope of them finding a future.