You are a terrier on this, decline rates, Stuart, and are very right to be. It is the key to what happens next. Of all the variables it is the one that most determines the future (sudden human commonsense and appropriate action notwithstanding).

I don't scare easily but I am fearful that decline rates will be significantly higher than expected on the major FIP, given the recovery techniques used lately. The initial cliff off PO might be surprisingly steeper than expected. I'm hoping that I have 4 or 5 more years to get organised but there is too good a chance it could hit sooner and fast.

When I look into the future I'm finding a bifurcation around late March 2006 (yes, being 'strange' on this). It's like there are two main probable futures, one where the shit hits fan bigtime, one where it poodles on as presently. They seem about 40% / 60% so far, it will get clearer as that time approaches. I've never felt this extremity of divergence before and what I 'see' frankly scares me.  Things seem to come back together about 4 to 5 years hence but that isn't positive, they come together on the worse path. Seems if we dodge the bad outcome in a few months time it will impose itself later. I've said too much already.