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13 comments on You have to repay a loan

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rudolfrechsteiner on December 28, 2005 - 5:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I have done a critique of IEA world energy outlook 2005.

You can read it here. They still maintain the preception of 35$ oil and 6$ /MBtu nat gas. they were wrong on wind power by a factor 20 in 1998, the real growth of wind exceeded the IEA forecast 20times...

you can find my speech on IEA here

http://www.rechsteiner-basel.ch/allepub/41

Rudolf Rechsteiner, Switzerland

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BioDiesel on December 28, 2005 - 11:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Great presentation.

Great graphs as well.

It's amazing how hard it is to convince people that wind is cheap!
America is entering a dangerous situation the next couple years; relying on LNG to heat our homes and make electricity.
Close to 20 billion will be invested in the LNG terminals/tankers/pipelines.
Imagine what 20 billion could do for wind power.
20,000 megawattts! At 5 cents a KWH! For 25+ years and minimal operation costs.

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Engineer-Poet on December 29, 2005 - 12:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Unfortunately, diverting that money to wind wouldn't solve the problem; the US gets about 90,000 MW from gas.

OTOH, at $5/mmBTU and 40% efficiency, gas costs 4.3¢/kWh for fuel alone.  "Pay for the next 20 years, or pay once and be done" sounds like a good slogan.

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Agric on December 30, 2005 - 8:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think that is a fair and reasonable presentation, Rudolf. The key aspect I got, and would emphasize: you cannot trust IEA (and similar organisations) predictions - you have responsibility to make your own assessments and justify them. The point about IEA predicting demand then inventing production to supply that is well appreciated here.

For governments to make correct decisions energy supply must be viewed as a risk analysis. It can be a wise insurance to diversify energy supply even if oil and gas prices drop (they won't). One can easily trash IEA oil price predictions by the fact: oil prices have increased by more than 30% in each of the last 3 years, they have probably predicted a static or fall in oil price every year.

Did you know China are building straw fired power stations?
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/login.php?red=art/2005/12/22/230197/Straw_power.htm
(it seems to be subscribers only now, and chargeable, it wasn't when I first accessed it)

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tom deplume on December 31, 2005 - 12:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Same thing is happening in Iowa.
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13 comments on You have to repay a loan

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