<IEA Revisions--The 2006 Forecast The Oil Drum 2006 Local Initiatives>

13 comments on You have to repay a loan

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MicroHydro on December 29, 2005 - 2:50am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Rudolf Rechsteiner's pdf presentation is worth taking the time to read.  His criticism of the IEA and praise of wind is sound.

Unfortunately, investor return in the wind sector was poor in 2005.  Vestas and Gamesa have half of the global wind turbine market.  Vestas is on track to lose money this year, Gamesa isn't doing much better.  Likely both of these stocks will finish the year with single digit share price gains.  Compared to any fossil fuel company, these stocks were losers in 2005.

The way that money works now, wind just isn't getting the job done.  Suppose you knew that a wind company would return 5% per annum (less than the real rate of inflation) but an oil company would return 15% per annum.  Where would you put your family's life savings?  I am considering divesting from wind in 2006.  It might be good for the planet, but it hasn't been good to me.

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Don in Colorado on December 29, 2005 - 3:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
We will be slaves to fossil fuels and the people who own them.
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SW on December 29, 2005 - 9:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Which proves only that the financial system is fucked up.
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markincalgary on December 29, 2005 - 11:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
When natural gas prices rise to the point that generating electricity via wind is cheaper than via natural gas, those stocks in wind electricity generation companies won't be cheap. Wing-gen stocks won't gain much until that event looks likely to the market. Remember, knowledge that an event will happen isn't enough to move the market. Timing is also a critical factor.

From my seat, those wind-gen companies look like a bargain. But I'm not betting the farm on it either.

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tom deplume on December 29, 2005 - 3:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That is why we cannot trust the market to prepare for the future. The transition to renewables needs big government support either as a big gauranteed cutomer or as a direct investor. We have precedents in the Rural Electrification project and TVA. Hoover Dam was financed by government bonds as well as many other hydroelectric projects. I would rather have the government borrowing a billion dollars a week for a new energy infrastructure than for military occupation of foreign countries.
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13 comments on You have to repay a loan

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