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20 comments on Kyoto Goes Local
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20 comments on Kyoto Goes Local
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GAIA Host Collective
If not everyone participates, then you again get bit by Jevon. Europe has taxed their oil through the roof for decades, but the U.S. luxuriates in cheaper oil because of Europe's reduced demand. No actual conservation occurs, the U.S. just gets fat off Europe's self-denial.
If the U.S. goes on a conservation diet then other countries will take advantage in that same way. When one country conserves, it lowers the global price for oil, sending an economic signal that encourages increased consumption.
The bottom line is that you're trying to fight against the law of supply and demand rather than working with it. What could the U.S. do to conserve oil in such a way that it sends the right signals to the rest of the world?
The most obvious would be to reduce domestic production of oil, as we did after the hurricanes. We would in effect decide to keep our oil in the ground, so that it will still be around in the future, when it is worth more. This will reduce global supply and cause oil prices to rise. The rise in prices will cause demand to fall both domestically and around the world. Hence you have conservation that does not cause Jevon's paradox to kick in.
Anything else that would raise world oil prices would help. If the U.S. government announced that its latest data predicted a worldwide oil shortage starting in a few years, and that oil prices would go above $100 and then $200/bbl within the next decade, this might spur an international oil panic that would cause prices today to rise as speculators try to get in on the ground floor. Again, this rise in prices would cause demand to drop, postponing oil consumption into the future.
Of course, this is all assuming that markets today are failing to recognize the reality of a near-term Peak Oil scenario and that some government intervention is needed. It takes a certain amount of arrogance for Peak Oilers to claim that their crystal ball is so much clearer than that of the rest of the world. If the facts were really so obvious, the effects in the previous paragraph would already be happening and demand would be falling. To the extent that oil markets do not foresee Peak Oil, enthusiasts should perhaps have the humility to admit that they might be wrong and that it is perhaps inoptimal to change the course of the entire world's energy use based on their speculations.
Well, the Europeans get decent health care out of the deal. Ours is slowly falling to pieces.
I was thinking along these same lines with regard to the possibility of rationing in an attempt to hold oil prices at a reasonable level and prevent inflation. If the U.S. were to ration, and the rest of the world didn't, then the oil price would still climb, and nothing would be accomplished.
If you try and freeze current usage with quotas based upon current usage, China and India would most likely refuse to cooperate.