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25 comments on Peak Energy Oz: Peak Oil and the Philosopher's Stone

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TJ on December 7, 2005 - 6:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
His point seems to be that the doomsayers are doomsayers because they would actually like the doom.  Be that as it may, if you are looking at futures where there are probabilities of total disaster (even if low), you're well advised to plan for it.  Nobody's repealed Murphy's Law recently.
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karlof1 on December 7, 2005 - 7:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
To elaborate, I would say he's calling-out the wide variety of self-fulfilling prophesies to show that they are just that and should be judged in that light.

There are far too many variables in play to make any sort of precise prediction in the short-term. For a good set of current longterm predictions, I think both Limits to Growth and Overshoot have great validity. But I do think that within the next ten years we will have a much better idea of what will transpire by 2050 than any of us have now.

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mikeB on December 7, 2005 - 9:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If I'm asked to give a presentation now, I preface by saying, "I can describe what Peak Oil is, but please don't ask me to predict the future."

At the end, I say: "OK. so what does all this mean?" And then I summarize all the views, from dieoff to abiotic cornucopia.

Dieoff is not as easily dismissed as the latter, I'm afraid.

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Agric on December 7, 2005 - 10:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The variables we can cope with, the lack of accurate data we cannot.

Hirsch is so right when he stresses risk.

We should be taking the 5% probable worse case as our baseline not the 5% probable best case, which the 'official' forecasts seem to. One only has to read this to see what I mean:
http://www.energybulletin.net/11370.html

Until we have credible data about recoverable reserves and decline rates for all major oilfields, plus good enough data to realistically model each field's production forward, most prediction is a guess.

What I have seen so far gives me the nasty feeling that we will not have that till past peak as we scrabble to justify the futile continued existence of our doomed fiscal and economic systems. Sorry folks :(

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25 comments on Peak Energy Oz: Peak Oil and the Philosopher's Stone

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