71 comments on The Wednesday Open Thread
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GAIA Host Collective
Dr. Y: must be a world-wide will to address the problem ...
Congresswoman: distane to supermarket is longer in USA
Congssman Allen: ... challenge is not the "date" of peak so much but ... price ... it will be too late then to take action even as undualting plateus in 2020 (per CERA) that is ascary date ... too soon for speed at which this Congress reacts ... expect a dramatic rise in price ... US economy can't handle price rise ....
CERA guy: undulating plateua will not stop dramatic rise in price ... once mkt realizes we are on the plateu ... Saudi will not give us more that 14 mbd increase ,they say 12 mbd increase
spkr Z: othe analyst from CERA used different decline rates, this other analyst come to conclude we have problem cause decline rates higher ... we lack good data
cg man: how is US auto industry doing? ... our MBA's look only 6 months forward ... Japan engineers look long term ... Japan has hybrid mkt ... I'm disappointed that US auto private sector did not respond to challenge
europe dr. X: Sweden volvo has PO in their mind ...
Some thoughts. Hirsch's point about RISK is very important. Thank God there is one rep, Bartlett who has a clue. The Chairman, Barton(?) seems clueless. Esser from CERA seems to concur that, yes, we have a problem. Esser says CERA doesn't bet at all on Saudi above 14mbpd. Excellent stuff from the Swedish guy. This was really some excellent public discussion at a very high level.
If anybody can find a link to the whole thing in Realplayer/WMA, please post. And a super thank you to whovever put the original post on yesterday. I think that was you, step back, wasn't it?
I was listening at the end after the hearing had adjourned. The CERA guy was talking to someone else next to an open mike, and was talking about having worked at Mobil (or was it Exxon) prior to the merger with Exxon, and then having gone on to CERA. I think he said he started out as a geologist. It was hard to tell - they weren't standing close enough to the mike.
In the past Barton has made particularly inane comments regarding global warming. I cannot find a quote online, but it was to the effect that he would fight with every means available any attempt to treat carbon as a pollutant.
Barton also was trying to intimidate scientists studying global warming with an anal-probe type of financial investigation:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/17/AR2005071701056.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/21/AR2005072102186.html
When the Canadians asked Mann et al for for the computer programs and data he used for the paper, he refused to give it to them. This is against scientific ethics, particularly in view of the enormous amount of money being spent on "global warming". Because Mann et al's research funds came from the Federal Government and because Congressman Bartlett chairs an energy subcommittee, the Congressman requested that Mann and some other researchers supply their data to people who asked for it. Details of this can be found on the web site climateaudit.org. I believe that Mann et al have supplied some of their data but not all.
The Mann data look strange to me because they do not show the Medieval warm period (a time when the Vikings lived on Greenland for many years) and the Little Ice Age, a period when extreme cold in Englad, Europe and North America meant that crop yields were very poor. It is indisputable that these unusual events occurred.
There are also problems with the warming of the earth's atmosphere due to CO2 emissions. The bulk of the warming is caused by water vapor and, at the present time, not all of the details of the spectrum of water vapor have been calculated.
More importantly, the IPCC report of course doesn't rely on one little paper to make its point. Like any heavily studied scientific problem it's a tapestry of many, many independent arguments and contributions, just one of which is the Mann et al paper (whose results have of course been improved upon, but little changed in character, in the 7 years since then).
In that sense the whole hockey stick argument is really a tempest in a teapot. and the congressional probe of Mann really was silly and pointless (if symbolic) political grandstanding.
650 thousand years of data shows a pretty strong correlation between CO2 and climate. I'm not saying that water vapour isn't important, but it could be a symptom rather than a problem.
You won't get much argument from me about Mann et al's work, but it isn't exactly standing in a corner all by itself. There is an already large and quickly growing body of peer-reviewed literature that supports human-compounded climate change.
There's been some pretty serious criticism of McIntyre & McKitrick's work as well. This debate has been going back and forth for quite some time now. But it's important to put it in context: These guys are arguing about details of their simulations while Siberia is melting. Faced with that fact, I don't much care about the details of the effect of different PC normalizations used in the simulations.
Personally, I find it alarming! We have already passed 380 ppm, rising by nearly 2 ppm/year. Looking back as long as the ice-cores go (800.000 years?), the CO2 concentration has never before been above 300 ppm.
How can you possibly believe the hockey stick when:
(a) Mann refuses to supply all of the "data" and programs he used;
(b) The hockey stick does not show that the climate was warmer when the Vikings were living in Greenland? Do you think they were never there?;
(c) the hockey stick does not show the very cold period in the Middle Ages, when crops were failing in Europe and North America.
The Web site realclimate.org does not post the arguments of its critics. Climateaudit.org does. You will learn much more from the latter site than the former.
Two distinguished econcomists, Ian Castles and David Henderson have made strong criticisms of the IPCC's economic arguments. If you Google Ian Castles you can, and should, read these arguments. Or you can read them at climateaudit.
Fred Singer is a good scientist with strong views on "global warming". Read his site. sepp.org, and you'll learn that Blair has stopped Britain's "global warming" initiatives.
(more on Fred Singer on pgs 51 and 52.)
Gelbspan is a Pulitzer Prize winner.
I tuned in late, after the presentations but during the questioning, and I agree that this appears to be very significant. The committee members displayed a strong level of interest and concern. They kept asking, you're telling us we have this huge problem but what should we be doing? The point was made repeatedly that what is important is not what the peak date is but that we need to start preparing now, with conservation and efficiency (stressed by Aleklett as the first line of defense), and investment in all kinds of alternatives; the big problem is the political will. I didn't have the visuals so couldn't tell who was speaking other than Aleklett, but it sounded like the committee members were mostly getting the point. They got that if we wait till there is a crisis - which is what will get the public's attention - we are in big trouble. I look forward to reading the transcripts which were posted yesterday as being at http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/house/house05ch109.html
But here are some follow up links:
Kjell Aleklett summarizes and welcomes questions at:
http://www.peakoil.net/TheHouse.html
Bush thanks Bartlett:
http://www.postcarbon.org/node/1692
Post Carbon announcement
http://www.postcarbon.org/node/1687
CNN on the money:
http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/07/markets/peak_oil/
http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/07/markets/oil/