71 comments on The Wednesday Open Thread
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
71 comments on The Wednesday Open Thread
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Unique Times -- and the Future
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- The Bullroarer - Friday 27th November 2009
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“Of all races in an advanced stage of civilization, the American is the least accessible to long views… Always and everywhere in a hurry to get rich, he does not give a thought to remote consequences; he sees only present advantages… He does not remember, he does not feel, he lives in a materialist dream.”
—Moiseide Ostrogorski (1902, 302-303)
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
When the Canadians asked Mann et al for for the computer programs and data he used for the paper, he refused to give it to them. This is against scientific ethics, particularly in view of the enormous amount of money being spent on "global warming". Because Mann et al's research funds came from the Federal Government and because Congressman Bartlett chairs an energy subcommittee, the Congressman requested that Mann and some other researchers supply their data to people who asked for it. Details of this can be found on the web site climateaudit.org. I believe that Mann et al have supplied some of their data but not all.
The Mann data look strange to me because they do not show the Medieval warm period (a time when the Vikings lived on Greenland for many years) and the Little Ice Age, a period when extreme cold in Englad, Europe and North America meant that crop yields were very poor. It is indisputable that these unusual events occurred.
There are also problems with the warming of the earth's atmosphere due to CO2 emissions. The bulk of the warming is caused by water vapor and, at the present time, not all of the details of the spectrum of water vapor have been calculated.
More importantly, the IPCC report of course doesn't rely on one little paper to make its point. Like any heavily studied scientific problem it's a tapestry of many, many independent arguments and contributions, just one of which is the Mann et al paper (whose results have of course been improved upon, but little changed in character, in the 7 years since then).
In that sense the whole hockey stick argument is really a tempest in a teapot. and the congressional probe of Mann really was silly and pointless (if symbolic) political grandstanding.
650 thousand years of data shows a pretty strong correlation between CO2 and climate. I'm not saying that water vapour isn't important, but it could be a symptom rather than a problem.
You won't get much argument from me about Mann et al's work, but it isn't exactly standing in a corner all by itself. There is an already large and quickly growing body of peer-reviewed literature that supports human-compounded climate change.
There's been some pretty serious criticism of McIntyre & McKitrick's work as well. This debate has been going back and forth for quite some time now. But it's important to put it in context: These guys are arguing about details of their simulations while Siberia is melting. Faced with that fact, I don't much care about the details of the effect of different PC normalizations used in the simulations.
Personally, I find it alarming! We have already passed 380 ppm, rising by nearly 2 ppm/year. Looking back as long as the ice-cores go (800.000 years?), the CO2 concentration has never before been above 300 ppm.
How can you possibly believe the hockey stick when:
(a) Mann refuses to supply all of the "data" and programs he used;
(b) The hockey stick does not show that the climate was warmer when the Vikings were living in Greenland? Do you think they were never there?;
(c) the hockey stick does not show the very cold period in the Middle Ages, when crops were failing in Europe and North America.
The Web site realclimate.org does not post the arguments of its critics. Climateaudit.org does. You will learn much more from the latter site than the former.
Two distinguished econcomists, Ian Castles and David Henderson have made strong criticisms of the IPCC's economic arguments. If you Google Ian Castles you can, and should, read these arguments. Or you can read them at climateaudit.
Fred Singer is a good scientist with strong views on "global warming". Read his site. sepp.org, and you'll learn that Blair has stopped Britain's "global warming" initiatives.
(more on Fred Singer on pgs 51 and 52.)
Gelbspan is a Pulitzer Prize winner.