You have already answered the question - what exactly would we use as a replacement? There is no one thing that fits the bill.

  1. Biofuels don't scale. They can help in some small way to maintain a technological society but they won't sustain suburban living. But people are researching this.

  2. Fusion doesn't exist yet, but people are still researching this too, even after 50 years of failures.

  3. Coal is already owned by companies heavily invested in coal. To buy into coal would require buying those companies (which we may yet see oil companies do).

  4. Fission is a specialized industry with a very small qualified workforce most of which is already employed by the companies already engaged in fission research and deployment. (Think GE here and other such companies.)

  5. Solar and wind are being invested in by the oil companies. Look at who makes most of the solar panels already.

The IOCs may feel that their shareholders are better served by letting the energy research situation resolve more clearly before investing more heavily. Remember all the auto makers near the beginning of the 20th century? Most don't exist anymore. So the IOCs could be protecting their existing capital with the hopes of snapping up a small, innovative company that develops something remarkable. In fact, most businessmen simply assume that this will occur since we need it to occur. Now it might and it might not. In the past we've pulled rabbits out of our hat but this is a bigger rabbit than we've ever pulled before. They may not fully realize just how difficult it will be this time though.

It's important to remember that peak oil does not lead inevitably back to the Olduvai Gorge. It can but it can also lead elsewhere, especially if we do choose to tackle sustainable energy issues. It's very technically clear that a mix of breeder reactors, coal technologies, solar, wind, and biofuels all taken together can sustain us for a long, long time with a comfortable lifestyle if we get a handle on population growth. So the problem is not and never has been science. The problem is the lack of political will to treat this as a serious risk management problem in the same way we've treated national security or the current risk of global pandemic as something worthy of consideration and action.

Consider that most of the oil we use is used for transportation purposes, so alternatives and replacements need to be in a form that is suitable for transportation (ignoring natural gas for the time being).

There is also the sense that we need 'bridge' fuels - something to tide us over until some long-term yet to be developed transportation infrastructure is developed.  Bridge fuels would be things easily adapted to the existing rolling stock.   Examples of bridge fuels would be:


  1. Biofuels, which as you point out don't scale well.  There are ideas out there for how to improve this situation, but until those are proven, we cannot jump on that bandwagon.

  2. Coal-to-liquids.  Technically feasible, but serves to deplete our coal reserves rather quickly.

  3. Tar sands/oil shale.  Unclear as to whether this will ever be economic.  Enormous amounts of natural gas are used, and given the current natural gas situation, it seems unwise.

  4. Plug-in hybrids.  The idea is that people can plug them in and draw most of their transportation energy from the grid, which would enable other stationary technologies to supply the actual energy.

In the longer term, there are several possibilities.  All of these involve a storage technology which is portable, and drawing energy from the grid (which would have to be augmented - ideally with renewable technology).  For personal transportation, possibilities include:


  1. Hydrogen is frequently touted.  Technical breakthroughs are needed in two areas before H2 cars are a realistic possibility - fuel cells, and gas storage.  There is also the question where the H2 comes from in the first place - H2 is really an energy storage medium like a battery, so you still need energy from other sources.  Some have argued that due to the inherent losses of creating the H2 and then using it in a fuel cell, that a regular old battery powered car would be more efficient.

  2. Non hydrogen fuel cells.  Engineer-Poet seems to like the Zinc-air fuel cells, which on paper look good.  The company that is developing this technology is on very shaky ground financially (unrelated to their fuel-cell work).

  3. Electric cars.  Technically electric vehicles are available now, however they are slow and have limited range.  In the past battery technology has been frequently cited as a limiting factor, but advances are being made which may improve this.

  4. Some argue that if the scalability problems of biofuels are solved that these can be a long-term solution.  It remains to be seen whether this is possible or not.

  5. Far fewer cars.  If none of the above work out, the reality is that we would end up using cars a whole lot less than we currently do, and rely more upon public transport, bicycles, or foot power.

For transport of goods to market - today done mainly by truck, it is likely that there will be a transition to transport of goods by rail as this is far more energy efficient than transporting goods by truck.  In the long run rail lines can be electrified, which would again serve to allow the use of rewnewable grid energy to power the locomotives.

It is also possible that there would be a reversal of globalization - a localization if you will in order to help control transportation costs.  This might mean for example that in the wintertime it would no longer be possible to get fresh fruit in the grocery stores.  While this doesn't involve a new technology, but some of the business practices  today are predicated on cheap energy.  As energy costs climb, these practices will no longer be economicly viable.

Very well stated.  Moreover, right now if you are an investor, rates of return for owning hydrocarbons look very profitable especially compared to investments in renewables.

To get an idea of this check out Vestas Wind Systems, the largest supplier of wind turbines in the world.

http://www.cse.dk/kf/kf_aktie_graf?p_stockid=stock.kf.DK0010268606&menu2show=1.1.2.4.

versus Suncor, the most successful oil sand company in Canada.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SU&t=my

From an investor's standpoint Vestas is a nightmare whereas Suncor has consistently rewarded investors.  Suncor is only one example out of about 30 I could name.

Once investors are convinced that they can make good returns on their investments in renewables, then money will start pouring into developing a large infrastructure of renewable energy sources.

"Fusion doesn't exist yet, but people are still researching this too, even after 50 years of failures."

This is a misunderstanding of fusion research. None of the research machines built to date were expected to create more fusion energy than was put into them. ITER is the first machine designed with that expectation and there is an excellent chance that it will do so and by a wide margin. The other machines that have been built so far were experimental rigs to allow us to understand plasmas under the conditions required for fusion. Fusion has been produced on a very large scale, in the case of JET 16MW of fusion power at 65% of input power. Many machines have reached, and some like JET have far exceeded all that was hoped of them. Our understanding of plasma physics has grown enormously and experimental results and theoretical predictions are now very close.

It has most assuredly not been 50 years of failure but 50 years of excruciatingly slow success.

However it is very unlikely that fusion will provide significant power on a global scale for another 50 years
but it about the only source of energy that has the ability of providing the concentrated power on a large scale for centuries sufficient to enable a global population near the present size to live in reasonable comfort without destroying  the environment.  

Since 50 years exceeds all but the most optimistic estimates of peak oil, the problem is how do we get from here to there.

That is the failure I am talking about - the failure to yet produce useful energy. I'm aware of the research progress but, precisely as you note, oil is not going to last til we get fusion running barring a lucky breakthrough and I don't want to bet the future of civilization on luck.

In the sense of providing a failover for the end of oil, fusion is a failure because it is not yet here even as oil is headed down.

Absolutely correct IMO Nick. Fusion power is the only large scale potential power source which we are currently aware of that could provide the power humans want. Bridging the gap to then is the best hope to continue 'life as we know it'.

When I last checked they expected to commission a viable plant with a positive EROEI in about 10 years, 50 years is what they predict for practical commercial use. But circumstances change and when the desparate need becomes more obvious resources would be found to shorten that, I hope.

So, let's be optimistic and suggest commercial use becomes possible by, say, 2035. Then perhaps the key objective is to retain and develop our technology level, and avoid falling into chaos, until that time. It's going to be difficult (probably more difficult than most people realise) but it must be possible. It will be a hard 30 years, I promise you.

Fusion is not the only power source with this kind of potential.  Fast spectrum (FS) fission reactors tap into an energy supply many times larger than all of our carbon resources put together.  Unlike fusion, we know how to make FS reactors work and we could start building a commercial FS reactor almost immediately.

The FS reactor can burn the uranium and plutonium from the spent fuel of our first generation reactors.  There is enough of this around that even with a power grid based entirely on FS reactors, we would not need to mine any uranium for over a century.

I'd not heard of that, nor is there much online at first glance (Google for "fast spectrum fission" yielded 3 hits, 2 space flight related, one fusion related!), do you have any informative links?
Fast spectrum refers to a fast neutron spectrum.  This is in contrast to the slow neutron spectrum used in current commercial reactors.

Here is a link to the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR), maybe the best example of a fast spectrum reactor.
http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/designs/ifr/anlw.html

Thanks, it sounds similar to the 'fast breeder reactors' that UK was experimenting with a few decades back, am I correct in that?

Certainly promising but why is it there is so little discussion of implementing this technology? I would have thought it could be done commercially now, and with the price of U235 going through the roof and its apparently failsafe operation it should be very economically viable. China is building lots of nuclear powerstations but, as far as I know, the most advanced are planned to use a pebble bed version of standard technology.