They sleep fine because they don't believe in Global Warming.  I would guess that their disbelief was set in stone 10+ years ago and they haven't had an open mind since.

Global Warming is very real but the value of Kyoto is questionable.  The Bush administration gets pounded daily for its refusal to sign on while the Government of Spain is praised for it's support.  Maybe we should have signed the treaty and then ignored it like some other governments have done, it would have saved us the pounding.

What action will be more helpful in Global Warming, Kyoto supporting governments failed reductions or Bush's billions in research?

StoneDog wrote:

"What action will be more helpful in Global Warming, Kyoto supporting governments failed reductions or Bush's billions in research?"

maybe you want say "[...] or Bush's billions in invading Iraq?"

Bush is not using billions dollars to fund research to HOW eliminate Global Warming, he is funding research to prove that there is NO Global Warming. My guess that he will be less sucessfull than invading Iraq, but I am sure that he will say "Mission Acomplished" and say that there is no scientific proof that there is Global Warming. By the way he will give more billion dollars to petro and coal industry.

I am from Brazil and I think you discussion is funny because you ever blame that Kyoto is not working because the third world don't want help to low the global Warming. Let's see: you from developed countries where industrialized first, you had all 19th and half 20th century throwing carbon at the atmosfere before industrialization started at the third world, but now you want we stop industrialization (while you continue to be industriazed, see you) to stop the Global Warming that YOU CAUSED!!!!!

Sorry, but I need say it: It will be a happy day when the dollar finally crunsh and the USA go down the role. You deserve it...

Well, well. As a US Citizen I am not particularly proud of much of our behavior towards Latin America -- or the Bush Administration policy on peak oil or global warming for that matter. Having said that allow me to make two points.

  1. Most Americans did not vote for Bush in 2000 -- and given the facts that are now coming out regarding rigged voting machines, it is at least possible that most of us did not vote for him in 2004, either.

  2. If you take America down you will in effect set up China in our place. A country that under Mao murdered at least 20 million of its own citizens, and will stop at nothing to gain a global domination that will make American hegemony look like a picnic. A country that doesn't care at all for human rights, even part of the time. A country that will steal the intellectual property of others (including the very innovative work you Brazilians are doing on the environment) and make sure that you receive as little profit on it as possible.

Without trying to lecture Latin Americans (again!) you might just be careful about what you wish for, in case you get it.
It probably felt good to let me have it but I probably agree with your views on Global Warming.  Kyoto is hopeless Annex 1 countries have reduced emissions by 1,089.90 Tg CO2 Equiv.

Sounds OK until you remove the basicly free reductions of 2,494.63 from the FSU leaving the remaining  Annex 1 countries with an Increase of 1,404.73.  

China a Non-Annex 1 country has had a net increase of around 640 Tg over the same period.  If the US had joined Kyoto and met it's requirements it would only have resulted in a reduction of 302.76 Tg.

We, as in the world, can't even meet these relatively insignificant reductions let alone the 60%+ required to effect change.  

I wouldn't wish for a fall in America because it would hurt the rest of the world and enthrone China.  No matter how much people, including Americans, like to blame "Bush" for both climate and energy problems "We the People" are ultimately at fault.

From my perspective Human Nature will not allow any of us to overcome these problems before they slap us in the face.  Peak Oil and Climate Change both require massive changes in behavior by entire populations...... Don't hold your breath.

WE ALL CAUSED IT!!

 6.5 billion of us caused it.

 If we all used trees as our fuel we would have caused it.

We are all to blame,  we should all stop all our use of fuels that can not be renewed.

Please do not totally blame the USA for it. When in the end most every man and woman on the face of the globe today is causing it.
 OFF MY SOAP BOX

WE ALL CAUSED IT!!

 6.5 billion of us caused it.

 If we all used trees as our fuel we would have caused it.

We are all to blame,  we should all stop all our use of fuels that can not be renewed.

Please do not totally blame the USA for it. When in the end most every man and woman on the face of the globe today is causing it.
 OFF MY SOAP BOX

Bush's billions in research?

Get real.

Bush admin is cutting all R&D except its funding for DOD.
Neocon motto: "Make Guns, not Hybrids."
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04222/358760.stm

They often say Kyoto is dead-born child.
The truth is that without USA it is dead born. With USA spewing a quarter of the world CO2 in the atmosphere (and rising) it is quite an incentitive for the tiny Danmark for example to reduce its share from 0.1% to 0.09%. A single year of USA emission growth compensates for the efforts of the rest of the world and with coal replacing NG the perspectives are even worse.

And enough of excuses; if USA - the richest country in the world took the hard but the right way on this; enough power would be gathered to press China and India to follow. Basicly without the western markets these two countries are just paper tigers. I know I'm daydreaming but if USA did that, now we would not waste a minute to talk about PO, and we would have had a secure international strength to help us out the economic sh*thole we are in. Don't be fooled - without the silent support of the international financial institutions and especially the European central banks this country would have long been in ruins.

1990 Annex 1 emissions:                          16,821.86
Reductions required by Kyoto in US:            302.76
Annex 1 emissions changes without FSU: +1,404.73

The US should absolutely work to reduce emissions, but Kyoto barely dent's emissions and over half the committed countries will miss their targets.  Saying its all the fault of the USA because they didn't commit to cut 1.8% of world emissions from its hide.....

I guess doing something feels better even it has no effect.  If you think China or India are going to prevent their own climb to 1st world status to help "the world" I fear you will be disapointed.  I doubt the US, Japan, or Denmark for that matter would under similar circumstances.

I think you missed half of the point - that it is more then necessarry the most technologically advanced nation to lead the way if we are really willing not to boil our kids (or freeze according to some other scenarios).

According to the data here between 1990 and 2001 USA increased its emissions by 200 Tg. Given that these 1404 Tg include China and India (for which I have no data) I'd say that 200Tg is a huge blow (about 15% increase, compared to the world's total including developing countries 9% increase).

I'd rather say the following - Kyoto may not win us the war - this is absolutely obvious. But it can very well be the first battle that can the give us:

  1. Information of what we can and what we can not do
  2. Incentitives to find the ways to reduce emissions
  3. Buy us some more time before GHG have accumulated; have you asked yourself how much would have been the increase without Kyoto?

And yes, I prefer fighting a battle I don't seem to be able to win than waiting to be defeated. Actually PO also looks like such a battle but this does not stop us for taking the measures now, right?

P.S. I'm still waiting to see somebody say thanx to Russia for being the savior in the rye on the PO and GW fronts for now.

I wonder if we might meet our Kyoto targets for exactly the same reason the FSU did - economic collapse. Personally, I think there's a lot to be learned from the Soviet disintegration. We may well face some of the same hard choices. In some ways we may be better prepared and in other ways worse.

There's a good piece on potential comparisons here: http://survivingpeakoil.com/article.php?id=soviet_lessons

Yes, I've read Dmitri Orlov's article - definately the best reading on the subject I've come upon.

About the likehood of USA economy collapse, frankly I don't know. It all depends on how adaptive the currents system is to changes. On this front I'm more pessimistic because I see more reactionary trends in the country, but I can not asses what is its internal immune strength - in the face of the people who are critical and are capable and willing to search for new ways. From my personal window I don't see such people around me, but my window is is pretty small. BTW I don't fully agree that Russia was in better position because it was surrounded by functioning economies. As a person that has lived through an economic collapse I can say that it is of too little help, especially on the way down... Basicly when you're drowning nobody comes to "rescue" you, rather they seem to come when you start to swim up to the surface. If it get to there we will have to rely only on ourselves.

Smaller country smaller problems?

What I am afraid of in Sweden is a "democratic" collapse. We have more authorities (About 300) running then we have skilled politicians that can control and instruct them. We have during most of the 1900:s and even now have had a more or less socialistic government with an almost as socialistic oposition. This has been changing, both has gradually been getting less socialistic.  My country has a kind of consesus culture. :-( This has made people used to getting promises that the political sector will allways provide, this can not continue due to fiscal reasons, its impossible to raise taxes as much as would be needed. How will people react when they dont get what they have been promised? There are efforts to correct this, our pension system was redone a few years ago into one that is viable wich means that payments will be lowered automatically withouth any new decisions if the economical growth stops or the economy shrinks or when the baby boomers retire...

How will people react to these bad news? We have had new parties forming with sadly simple "give us or vote and all will be well as it used to be" promises and the worst of them had "evacuate the immigrants" on the agenda. So far they have attracted nutcases and failed, at worst after being a minority party for one election. But there is a risk that people will ask for a strong leader with stupid ideas.

What made us fairly prosperous even when we had a lot of socialism was a strong private sector that was more or less left alone untill 1970 with the major exeption being laws written in ways that was better for large corporations and worse for small. We had enough luck to survive the second world war unharmed and there were only two countries in europe where the marshall aid money could be spent Switzerland and Sweden. We also had and have plenty of forests, hydropower and minerals. The authorites had a major purge of the corruption in mid 1800:s and were since long run in a professional way to be independet of the kings power, some kings are worthless. Our major socialist party were actually competently run, they and the liberals had a strong emphasis on education, started local libraries and the leaders they elected understood common work and economy and were fairly unselfish. The second generation were not as good and the emphasis on education started to faulter. The third generation is from my point of view going realy bad, they have started to corrup the authorities by appointing relatives and trusty party  members as all kinds of officials. The system to resist a bad king worked fairly well during most of the 1900:s.

In the opposition party I am am member of there is a debate on how to do something about this when get into power. Can the old system be restored or will it change into a more american system where each new government change all the top officials? We need to change a lot of people out to make the country possible to govern in a new direction but how unseflish can we be with the new appointments? My guess is that we will try to restore the old "proffesional accountant" system.

I realy, realy hope there will be a change of power during the next election. Sweden could be so much better run and also developed from being a fairly peak oil resistant contry to a country benefiting from peak oil. Our current socialists needs to be humbled and find ther roots and educate their members instead of talking big and dumb people down. We will need their opposition to stay alert for a number of elections. ;-)

One part of our democracy that might aid during hard times is the fairly independant municipal governments wich has a a part of the income tax as their major income. We have cities/municipials that are exelently run and others that are quite badly run. Strange political coalitions, bickering, experimentation and a fair number of politicians that know their neighbours and are in touch with the state government. The current socialists have nearly wing clipped that part of our democracy by laws directing and centrally planning a lot of what they do. But it is still a working tradition that can be restored.  Our large number of district heating systems is due to our climate and the municipals tradition of building waterworks and sanitiation etc. Much of the building of new railways and new rail traffic is due to municipials trying to extend the commute radius to compete better with other regions.

There is a general feeling that we need to build infrastructure now before the baby boomers start to retire, the municipials at the bottom of the list wont get their railways untill the money dries up. I think peak oil will add to the haste and intensifie the competition.

I do not know how this compares to USA since I know far to little about that continent sized country. You seem to have more of the same kind of runaway autority size and number problem. Some people complain about the same kind of nomenclature forming within ruling parties. I think you have  a vibrant democracy for local elections of authorities, correct?

Sometimes I wonder if Sweden could be run so well that we get Americans to migrate over here. Our shool voucher system is probably the best example of a change from socialistic to a free and market based system. 7% ( between 0 and 25%)  of the pupils go to non municipial schools but we still have a problem with poor education results, our municipial run schools and government needs to learn lessons from Finland.

There are ideas about dismantling other parts of the big government systems in ways that open up for free enterprise, innovation and other ways of living. But introducing variations is like pulling teeth, people resist it and want things to be as they allways were even if it hurt all day untill they notice that it realy works better after the big change. It has been done with the state teleco company and that worked out well but the deregulation of the electricity production was a PR disaster even if it works fairly well if you analyze it. Our greens rased energy taxes and energy prices are getting higher and people blame it on the deregulation. Could have been worse, at least we did not do it California style. :-)

What kind of government and democratic traditions will work best during a peak oil resource crisis?

You make many good points
Discussions about what kind of government is best are as old as recorded time itself:
tyrrany of the majority
tyrrany of the minority
the philosopher king
etc. etc.

IMHO it is most important to educate our children into having a moral value system that honors Planet Earth and her limited resources (oil, water, air, fish, etc.), that honors science (laws of thermodynamics, Murphy's laws, etc.) and makes them understand about various modes of mental manipulation so they don't fall prey to the candyman politicians (vote for me, and I'll give you all you want for free!!!)

Sorry for the double post earlier.

 If the USA admitted that they needed to join the CO2 protocol, they would also have to admit that there was a problem, which as you can see we have not yet.

 I personelly do not see the USA admitting to a problem ever. Or at least until the problem is so manifest that they must admit to it just to save face.

 Look to the Saudi's for this Face saving method.
 They most likely know they have a problem, but can not admit it to anyone even their own sons lest it become public knowledge, so that they hedge their bets and hope for the best.

It's not that they don't believe it, its just that they can't afford to believe it.