Well, Simmons has been saying for a while that gas is going to go up well into the three figure range.  I think when the NYT calls you up out of the blue and asks you to put your money where your mouth is, you either say yes or you get humiliated on the op-ed page.  Sounds like he said yes in a heartbeat.  To me he doesn't sound like a jack-ass.  He got handed about the best marketing opportunity a book author can get (a second bout of coverage in the NYT and this time in the paper itself, not the mag), and he didn't blow it.  (And after all, this is the NYT, not the WSJ, so the readers are probably much less likely to run out and check the futures prices).  From his standpoint, taking a lousy bet just makes it all the more resounding if he's right.