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GAIA Host Collective
Inelastic demand works in both directions.
Prices are high, so the advantages of buying hybrid cars are quite large. Even if we could replace every car in America in the next three years, we don't have to. Americans are going to buy lots of smaller cars and hybrids over the next two years - sorry Detroit - and that will reduce oil demand a few percent.
And, because the demand is so inelastic, that few percent will do a lot to hold down prices.
Silent E
And do you think the Europeans would manage the Peak Oil better with all their effective diesel cars? They will just drive less. Increasing fuel efficiency will help you in the beginning, with oil supply down 10 -20%, but it costs a lot and changing all cars will take much energy, so the net effect is not so great. But don't worry. Oil crisis ususally bring recession, recession brings unemployment, unemployed stop commuting and use less gas. Statistics show that even a mild recession cuts fuel usage effectively. The rest will buy smaller cars because many can't afford bigger - if they have money for a new car. This is the easy part. The difficult part is coping with the recession.
Just one aspect: As far as I can tell, you can still get around many cities and towns by walking. In my town half of our workforce lives more than ten miles away (guessing) and 95% of the town was laid out and built after the automobile took over, so everything is sprawled all over. No such thing as a neighborhood grocery or other services, and while we could probably push zoning changes through in ten years or so, if the economy tanks it would be virtually pointless as there won't be anybody left but Wal-Mart and the like anyway.
We are 100 miles from a big town (over 200,000 people) in any direction, our groceries, mail, etc. all depend on trucking to get here (no rail except for bulk goods like rock and chemicals, passenger service ended years ago) and it might actually be easier and/or more economical for people to move to the bigger towns than it would be to secure services here.
That's the pessimist in me talking, btw.