mw, do you know anything about the modeling that's in the second update?

here's the link:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL122005_gomex_oil.html

those are amazing numbers that are modeled on Ivan and other hurricane behavior.  experimental.  scary.

No, I'm just a consumer of this "info" like most - I can only speak from the mind of a trader (hopefully others will step in here and add their two cents) certainly this sort of modelling, if it has any track record at all, would be another influence in my decision process, pushing me to hold or add to long oil positions (and ensure I had no GOM exposure).
I do agree the damages can be of neverseen levels , and maybe will have the $100 scenario sooner then many tought , at least me... I did sold product on the sell off last friday , unfortanely I did close all my positons , but first thing in the morning(uk) , if track and assements still the same , it will be to get in long on crude and heat oil , because not just the damage will create, for sure will be severe ,but also the momentum build up for the bulls, which is already so high , and please don't make any confusion, i believe there is no fundamental reasons for the prices levels , I think they are over exagerated and are starting to making enormous damage to the world economy but the it take a while to feed trough, plus the time will take to assess all the possible damage will leave the market full of fear=high prices...the market did not priced in a major disruption like this...anyway just my humble opinion , what do you think the prices are going to? what are the consequences ...maybe the opening of spr , once state of emergency benn declared ?