![]() | Hurricane Katrina Update: The Event that Introduces Peak Oil to a Nation | The Oil Drum | Oil at $70, NG close to $12 on NYMEX in Sunday pre-market | ![]() |
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We are going to have a classic short term supply disruption. As absolute supply tightens, you are going to have a situation where a 5-10% decrease in supply could mean a much higher increase in prices due to the lack of elasticity. This could be a good chance to actually measure how elastic demand is to price? How high does price have to go to destroy demand?
Alternatively the cleanest solution to this situation is to have leaders at all levels of government, businesses, etc to cut back gas consumption by 10%. If people were asked to sacrifice, I think they would do it. As a relative optimist, I truly believe that if people thought it would help the nation get through this crisis, they would drive less. All it takes is the right leadership, which we so sorely lack these days.
I haven't heard one breathe of conservation out of this administration, I think that they will spin it into the need to push ahead with ANWR more quickly, or something like that, despite the obvious solution that you proposed.
It is not the patriotic duty of citizens to spend themselves into oblivion.
As we saw in the early 1980's, many people in the US made sizable adjustments--they traded in large American cars for diesel VW Rabbits, car pooled, etc. But that level of change took some time.
Our current situation could resolve itself before consumers have a chance to respond beyond minor adjustments. If we're lucky and the damage from Katrina isn't as bad as feared, then we have to be careful not to misjudge the adaptability of consumers.
This lag in consumer response is partially due to economic reasons--most people don't have the resources to instantly trade in a car for something more fuel efficient, etc. But it's also due to psychological factors, as people need to be convinced that the higher prices will last long enough to justify making significant changes.
If energy starts to head lower consumers will do their bit and start buying big cars again with a vengence, given the sales continuing to be offered.
no doubt it will all contribute to a perfect storm at some later point.