I'm completely serious about this.  Economics is the study of the allocation of scarce resources.  Various energy sources have suddenly become a heck of a lot more scarce than they were a week ago.

As a very short first pass, let me point out that in any market shock timing is critical; you can't talk seriously about the current energy situation without being hyper-aware of the time frame in the discussion.  The other often overlooked factor is market psychology, which certainly includes, but is by no means limited to, things like the phenomenon of people topping off gas tanks and making the collective situation worse.

We're in a classic market shock, in that no one predicted this would happen more than a few days before it struck, so no one had a chance to prepare to any appreciably extent.

Back to time frames, with a focus on gasoline:

We have the immediate short run, which I think of as the next few days, but no more than a week.  During this time I expect, as I believe Dave mentioned in another topic, for there to be spot shortages (as we're already seeing in some SE US cities) and quickly adjusting prices.

In the short run, starting in about a week and stretching to a month, we'll see prices settle in at a new level, likely in the high $3/gallon to low $4 range.  The chances are good that shortages will be minimal, with no need for overt rationing (as oppsed to the price-induced rationing caused by the market doing its thing).  The market will have "sorted itself out" as economists like to say.

The medium term, a month to perhaps six or seven months (basically until the spring 2006 cyclical oil price rise), will likely be marked by a major mental readjustment for US consumers.  Some will scream for gov't to "do something", some will actively seek and use ways to reduce their gasoline consumption (early adopters of the new mindset, so to speak), and some will keep fillin' the ol' SUV and driving too much and accelerating too hard, stuck in denial.  This staged response will slow down conservation efforts, but it will also prevent chaos--you don't want every SUV owner in the country to try to trade in their vehicle for a hybrid at the same time.

We'll also see real economic impacts in the medium term; reduced consumer spending overall, greatly reduced spending on transient entertainment items (trips to the movies and theme parks; buying video games and DVDs might actually go up as people shift even more to home-based activities), reduced resale value on low-MPG vehicles, etc.  Essentially, this will be the whole economy starting to reconfigure itself to accomodate higher energy prices.

Finally, the medium term is when we'll see some of that refinery and oil production capacity in the NOLA area coming back online.  This should ease prices a bit, but my guess is not much.

The long run begins with late spring 2006.  This is when people have had a chance to internalize the months-long experience and start making longer-term plans.  I expect that the car market will be very interesting, to say the least, by then, as many more people will be trading in old low-MPG vehicles for new(er), more efficient cars.

But we'll also see things like shifts in the size and location of new home construction, changes in gov't policies (hey, I can hope, can't I?), and a general but marked increase in the level of mainstream awareness about energy and efficiency issues.

And in the very long run, we're all worm food.