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75 comments on Another Way of Looking at CERA

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Stuart Staniford on September 13, 2005 - 10:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Both the US and the world graphs don't settle down until cumulative production reaches about half way to peak annual production (at the upwards inflection point in an annual production versus time graph). Also, the early distortions are in both case systematically above the linear trend once it appears, not randomly above and below. So I think we need a more powerful explanation than you propose - it appears there might be some systematic correction to the model needed to explain the early years better.
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DuncanK on September 14, 2005 - 4:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I guess the question is, where did the EIA get this early data from?  Was there any financial benefit to US producers in the early days to over-estimate production and under-estimate cumulative production?  Perhaps there was a timeliness issue about the reporting of early cumulative production - i.e. they reported them later.

I would say that given the fact that a lot of that early data would have been in the first half of the 20th century, that it's reliability would be questionable, compared to the accuracy of data resulting from the second half.

Anyway, the more settled data later is just that, settled, so I would tend to believe that was more the 'norm'.

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75 comments on Another Way of Looking at CERA

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