David Delaney is an acquaintance and a former employer of mine. When I became interested in Peak Oil a while ago, Google searches turned up his articles. He is one of the smartest, more realistic people I know, and is among the least intellectually compromising. He has my utmost respect for his thorougness and rigour.  He's seen this catastrophe coming for four years now, and has been diligently refining his comprehension of the issues over that time.

As the article demonstrates, he is deeply pessimistic. I believe his pessimism is well founded, and share it myself. He is firmly convinced that the human species is in overshoot, that a die-off is coming, that there is nothing we can do to avoid it, and that denial of this understanding is nothing more than comforting delusion. I agree with him.

I also agree with him that die-off will affect only about 80% or 90% of the species, and that the remaining 10% to 20% will be able to survive if they are in the right circumstances. The problem is to determine what those survivable circumstances are, and if you aren't in them to determine how to get there.

One thing he doesn't mention in his article is the time-line. This is largely determined by oil, of course. From conversations with him, coupled with my own research, I am convinced that the industrial societies are about five years (ten at the outside) away from the first undeniable evidence of collapse. In fact, the first signal - high and unstable fuel prices - are with us already.

The whole notion of obershoot/dieoff sucks and is very uncomfortable to contemplate on a personal level. Delaney frankly says that this understanding has wrecked his life. But if our civilization does not listen to its Cassandras - the Dave Delaneys, Colin Campbells, Matthew Simmons, James Kunstlers, Matt Savinars, Ken Deffeyes etc. - we will all be screwed, instead of just 85% of us.