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71 comments on Delaney: "What to do in a failing civilization"

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Yosemite Sam on September 19, 2005 - 5:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Prof. Goose:  As I recall, you have been pretty hard on Kuntsler.  But Delaney is saying much the same thing.  Can you say more?  Do you find Delaney's arguments more pursuasive and less vitriolic?  Do you disagree with him and are posting him as a FYI kinda post?
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Prof. Goose on September 19, 2005 - 6:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
A fair note, YS.  And my answer is: a little bit of both.  

I think I am harder on Kunstler at times because he is a more inviting target, yes.  But as Jamais said over at WorldChanging, all the Cassandras are a necessary part of change.

Yes, I think Delaney makes the case a little bit more scientifically and in a manner similar to Diamond et al in this piece, in a language that scientists can better relate to.  

However, I still think we have the ingenuity and creativity as a race to solve this problem, but with each day that passes where it is not our primary focus, my heart gets a little more troubled.  

There's a lot of evidence of various die-offs that have occurred.  However, various species were not humans with creativity and ingenuity.  Examples also exist at the human level but even the Easter Islanders that Diamond uses as one of his examples do not have today's technological capacity.

We can do this.  I just fear that the collective notion is so far away from us that it's just not going to be possible until too late.  I truly hope that I am wrong...

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Dave Cohen on September 19, 2005 - 6:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, PG, some people had the foresight and people generally had the ingenuity and creativity to prevent the flooding of New Orleans. I believe this presents us with a microcosm for the larger problem Delaney dicusses. Many people, including reporters from the Times-Picayune, published warnings that came to pass.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
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odograph on September 19, 2005 - 8:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think a lot of us are riding a post-Katrina depression.  It is unfortunately a good parallel to peak oil (or global warming).  It's a problem predicted/understood by scientists, but put off by politicians as too expensive and depressing, or worse yet used as an excuse to satisfy special interests.
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jhm on September 20, 2005 - 6:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"[H]is examples do not have today's technological capacity."

I think the more relevant difference isn't technology, but a lack of homgeneity (there is no global 'culture' imposing (the same) destructive impulses, combined with comunication between, (and even knowledge of) ouside groups that will be humanities saving grace, and the problem with comparing the history the demise of past cultures and humanity as a whole.

As an aside, has anyone read Niven's "A Mote in God's Eye?"  This Sci-fi book talks of a global civilization that repreatedly crashes due to mamoth over population, but has made progress from colapse to colapse by building museums and such like to teach the future faster than learning from scratch.  This also is a major difference betwen global cultural evolution its indidvidual societies.  groups may not learn from their own mistatkes, but groups might learn from other groups.

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Donal on September 20, 2005 - 8:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, I wish our contractors could hire some Moties.  Niven and Pournelle came up with a surprisingly good sequel, "The Gripping Hand," too.  I guess we'll have to destroy all those car-chase movies or we're leaving behind the wrong message.
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Waldi on September 20, 2005 - 9:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Regarding "A Mote in God's Eye", i read shortly ago a fascinating essay in a very similar vein:  Living at the fulcrum. The author essentially claims that mankind is approaching a historical crossroads: Either our technical civilization transcends soon the limits of Earth and heads into space or it will never do so. This would be precisely for the same reason described in a "A Mote in God's Eye": Mankind is in the process of "burning it's bridges", consuming every easily available sources of raw materials and energy. After a possible collapse of our civilization (most certainly not in 5 or 10 years time, but a distinct possibility within  this century) any subsequent civilization would face extreme difficulties to reach the same level of civilization.
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Donal on September 20, 2005 - 4:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I wonder about the cost of supporting colonies on other planets.  Our system doesn't seem too promising for self-sustaining colonies, and we don't seem ready to send the Robinsons to Alpha Centauri, either.  

BTW, the chilling thing about, "The Mote in God's Eye" was that our heroes, Blaine, Sally, etc., worked under a government that saw fit to put down a rebellion by exterminating all residents of a planet colony.  

Did anyone see Vonnegut on The Daily Show?  He looks like Mark Twain, and is just as sharp.

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Anonymoose on September 20, 2005 - 4:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I saw him on that show and I agree with your comments.
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71 comments on Delaney: "What to do in a failing civilization"

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