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30 comments on The impact seems widespread, but there is hope

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Steve Verdon on September 2, 2005 - 11:14am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Prof. Goose,

So, you can attempt to impugn all you wish.

I wasn't impugning you and I think you are perhaps a just a wee bit over-sensitive.  Generally speaking my view is that your posts have taken a darker view that just doesn't seem to be reflected in the pricing of gasoline.  Maybe the markets are whacked and you guys are onto something, but it does seem most of the focus here is more negative than perhaps warrants.

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Prof. Goose on September 2, 2005 - 11:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It's not sensitivity.  (Are you kidding?)  I just didn't care for your implication/impugnation that TOD was systematically ignoring the limited amount of good news (the irony being that you were commenting in a thread that was actually contained some of that good news) that was out there.  It seems to me that we do what we can to be fair, balanced, and objective around here.

As for the gasoline markets, I truly hope you're right.  But no, I do not share the market's optimism.  Only time will tell, I guess.  

The pipelines are going, at best, to be slow for a while.  The LOOP and Fourchon are, at best, at very limited capacity for a while.  The refineries are, in some cases, months away from capacity operation.  (and we have, in one way or another, at least comment boxed those events, by the way.)  The removal of environmentally-safe/EPA gas requirements are a positive short-term development for supply, but they're not good for the air we breathe.  Trade-offs, I guess, eh?

Still, please understand that we don't have some kind of "dark" wish that prices are going to go to $10/gal.  That's just not the case.  I just think we here at TOD come from the position that the perspective of the US is going to have to adjust to come to grips with how bad Katrina is going to hurt, especially with oil supply/demand as balanced on a knife's edge as they were prior to this event.

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Steve Verdon on September 2, 2005 - 2:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It's not sensitivity.  (Are you kidding?)  I just didn't care for your implication/impugnation that TOD was systematically ignoring the limited amount of good news (the irony being that you were commenting in a thread that was actually contained some of that good news) that was out there.

Yes, and you missed several of the items.  My characterization was correct, you missed them.  Further, you guys have been on top of this story like nobody else (which is a good thing) so it struck me as a bit odd that you guys are missing some of these stories.

Still, please understand that we don't have some kind of "dark" wish that prices are going to go to $10/gal.

I'm not saying that, and if I were to take your view on this I'd say you are imputing to me views I do not hold.  What I noted was that your view is darker than most.  That is, it is possible to want things to work out, but have a more pessimistic view than others.  Considering that you wrote,

As for the gasoline markets, I truly hope you're right.  But no, I do not share the market's optimism.  Only time will tell, I guess.

My take on your position is not all that off.  You are not as optimistic as the market...hence more pessimistic, or as I put it a somewhat darker view.

By the way, I'd also suggest that watching the electricity front is a good idea too.  From what I've read that appears to be one of the early hurdles many seem to face.  Until that one is handled it seems the others are less important.  And this is where the natural gas production could come into play.  I don't know if LA has lots of coal plants, and I do know Entergy has quite a bit of nuke generation, but is that running or not?  My understanding is that bringing a nuke plant back on line is a fairly lone and lengthy process.

Fernando,

In my view you reflect the classic rossy views that extreme freemarketeers use all the time.

Whatever.  This kind of comment is just stupid and indicative of trolling, IMO.  I haven't said everything is going to be just peachy.  In fact, initially I was just as grim in my outlook as the Oil Drum.  If you wish to continue posting out of ignorance, feel free, but it only reflects badly on you.

Oh and my views on peak oil in general parallel those of Prof. Hamilton.  I guess he's just another rossy viewed econ guy too.

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Ben on September 2, 2005 - 2:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Steve,

I posted in the comments on Sept 1 about both the Plantation and Colonial pipelines trying to restart (with links to their press releases) as well as the limited resumption of LOOP (they started to unload their first ship since pre-Katrina at 5:00 PM on the 1st and still reported generator problems)

That these items did not immediately become regular posts on The Oil Drum I attribute to the fact that the guys running the site have full time jobs, not that they were trying to not highlight the good news.

We're all looking for good news this week, it seems.  I don't believe any malice was intended.

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Fernando on September 2, 2005 - 2:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Steve you're unbelievable.

You came here, droped an opinion in the line of "I don't like the pale blue color of your site" and when someone tried to highlight that you are just giving an opinion based on your personal taste by paraphrasing you, you said "you're trolling and making stupid comments".

Well you've just described your comments.

His views? could be, but not his manners, my friend. He does his stuff with style.

Fernando

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Prof. Goose on September 2, 2005 - 3:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Now, now...everybody chill.  I didn't take any offense to anything Steve said except for the "systematically missing the good news" idea part of his comment here and over at his place...that's all.  

The "having a different perspective" part is and always been true of TOD...and I hope it continues, because in my view, it's a very valid perspective.  Therefore, I take it as a compliment.

Also, Ben's right, we have full time jobs AND maintain this site...so we're gonna miss things.  

That's why we count on the amazing community here.  You help us more than you ever know.  Our commenters are simply amazing resources and they help us SO MUCH...so, I want to take a minute a say "thanks" to all of you.  

You let us know we're doing something right, and your help just makes the site better.

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Fernando on September 2, 2005 - 11:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Steve,

In my view you reflect the classic rossy views that extreme freemarketeers use all the time.

 

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mw on September 2, 2005 - 2:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Markets act on what is known at the time or can reasonably be assumed, but there are always two sides to every trade - one trader sells because he's afraid, or hoping, prices will go lower, another buyers for exactly the opposite reasons.

There will be varying degrees of being "wrong" in a situation like this.

Ascribing too much importance to a single day pull back following a price spike would be almost as unwise as putting too much weight on the importance of the spike itself.

Or looked at another way, if we isolate just prices from the past week, there isn't enough data yet available to determine if a new trend higher has kicked off, or if recent prices marked a definable top that we can look back at longingly from within the cockpit of our Ford Excursions.

On news such as this week's, price always surges and almost always pulls back some as traders take some profits or conclude, for themselves, if perhaps things aren't as bad as they looked at first blush.

What's more important is what follows and unfortunately we'll have to wait until we catch up with time. Sadly my time machine is off-line, as the temporal mechanic who normally services the box is stuck in a gasoline station line up.

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30 comments on The impact seems widespread, but there is hope

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