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54 comments on Resource Page--UPDATED for Landfall

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Oil Trader on September 20, 2005 - 8:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Almost for sure we are at the peak Prof Deffeyes has got the date 100% right If the global oil system could run at 100% (no real system can run at anything like that) we could have a couple of years to go but it doesent and we dont.

PEAK OIL  2004-2007  

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Dave Cohen on September 20, 2005 - 8:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Responding to Oil Trader and Rick above that:

I have always thought of Deffeye's "Thanksgiving 2005" prediction as tongue in cheek, not sincere but meant to be taken seriously in a larger sense. However -- this should not come as a surprise -- I have seen it taken literally in some MSM articles. Check it out here
"World oil production is going to peak on American Thanksgiving, with a three-week period of uncertainty on each side," declares Princeton professor, geologist and oil maverick Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Once supply begins to dwindle, the years to follow will see shortages that, at best, will cause "global recession, possibly worse than the 1930s Great Depression," says Deffeyes. At worst, he warns of "war, famine, pestilence and death."

Deffeyes' prediction is clearly controversial.
Anyway, I entirely agree that a world delivery system can not run for any significant period of time at 100% of capacity. I would be a bit cautious right now about predicting the end times ;) based on two hurricanes.
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Rick on September 20, 2005 - 9:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Dave-
I always though Deffeyes was tongue in cheek about Thanksgiving Day, but I've come to believe he himself is pretty literal about it. My take, from both his books and seeing him on video, is that he knows the exact day is arbitrary, but he's pretty serious about the peak occurring within a 6 week window. He's fitted a lot of curves. Take a look at Ken on video:

http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=072705

If he's not serious, he does a good deadpan.

End times? Too early for that. Anyway, Michael Stipe (a noted authority) says the end will start with an earthquake. It is a safe bet that we'll see more hurricanes.

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Dave Cohen on September 20, 2005 - 10:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Lately, Stuart has also fitted some curves. Rembrandt came out with his report but did not see a peak before 2013. CERA sees no peak before 2020. HO believes it's worthwhile to look at scheduled oil production over the next few years and so do I. ASPO sees the peak as being in the 2007/2009 period depending on who you read. If Duffeyes is actually serious -- 11/2005 -- then I regard that as a problem for the peak oil community. I don't want to see anymore "crying wolf" predictions that don't pan out. I don't believe Deffeyes' prediction and I hope he's not serious. But, we're close to peak oil time and this statement depends how much time we're talking about. I view that as some number of years -- 0? 1? 3? 5? -- but not less than 10 years.

On the other hand, Jim Kunstler today and Matt Simmons see this winter as pretty much Apocalypse Now with respect to Energy prices and supply. I don't know but I will say that Natural Gas prices are just about doubling in the next few months everywhere in the US, a topic which as been much neglected here at TOD.

When I said "end times", perhaps you missed the smiley ;) I attached to that text.
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Rick on September 21, 2005 - 8:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
On Deffeyes being serious: from Beyond Oil, 2005: "My estimate of the peak date of the smooth curve is November 24, 2005, Thanksgiving Day. The uncertainty is roughly one month on either side of Thanksgiving Day." and "It looks as if the Hubbert Peak is upon us. Whether the maximum year is 2003 or 2005 doesn't matter much. It's real and it's here." Note that in 2005 he's still mooting the possibility that the peak was in 2003.

from Hubbert's Peak, 2001 (I know, ages ago): "Similarly, the year 2000 may be the year of maximum world production, and the mathematical midpoint will be 2004 or 2005. There is nothing plausible that could postpone the peak until 2009. Get used to it."

Any way you look at it, Ken is an early peaker, though later than several others. I personally am in the 2008-ish camp, but I've got a pretty wide confidence interval around that date.

As for credibility and "crying wolf" predictions: there is a big problem with this, and I don't see it going away. Michael Lynch often uses past incorrect predictions as ammunition for his arguments. As for future predictions: they can easily be correct, but look wrong, even after the fact, for 2 reasons: 1) We won't be able to see the peak until some time after it occurs. 2) We may well get a bumpy plateau with very little peakedness about it--it could be a flat top of some years duration instead of a pointy peak. Under these circumstances, a correct prediction could easily look wrong. This, of course, cuts our preparation time even further.

Yes, I saw the smiley. I just find Stipe clever, jaded, and appropriate for many circumstances. Recall that the same song with all its apocalyptic imagery includes "eye of a hurricane." We're all working hard to assimilate this issue, and we should try to feel fine.

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Dave Cohen on September 21, 2005 - 11:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Guess I'm wrong about Duffeyes' intent. Although as you and Lou note, he may have just got lucky with this second storm coming in.
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Everett on September 21, 2005 - 11:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
About the natural gas, yes, being in the North East, I am very concerned. On the downside, it looks like Rita could shut in even more NG than Katrina.  On the upside, maybe Canada has more NG to sell us than is expected.

My gloom scenario:  a tight NG market is disrupted this winter.  NG is prioritized for home heat over electrical production.  NG-heated homes are dark, but warm.  Many oil-heated homes, with electrically powered furnaces, become dark and cold.  Pipes freeze, water spews, and a significant number of New Englanders are effectively, if temporarily, transported back about 100 years in life style.

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54 comments on Resource Page--UPDATED for Landfall

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