What is the production loss due to depletion (type 3) expected for those years? is it more than 2 mbpd?
According to Chris Skrebowski the 2004 decline was 1 mbpd.  It is increasing from year to year as fields age but it doesn't appear that it will reach 2 mbpd before 2010.

(http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/379)