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112 comments on Rita Old Comment Thread 2

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Stuart Staniford on September 22, 2005 - 5:21am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
The 6am UTC models are almost all heading smack over Galveston/Houston.

The odds of two cat 5s in the gulf in a month seem not completely unbelievable given the overall trend in hurricane intensity.  But the odds of a direct hit on New Orleans followed by a direct hit on Houston?

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louGrinzo on September 22, 2005 - 8:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, the odds seem slim of that happening, or at least they did a few weeks ago.  

I'm sure you're aware of the saying that the laws of probability don't just allow for coincidences, they insist on them.  

We probably won't know for a few years if 2005 is just a meteorological fluke or the beginning of a deadly pattern.  Kind of like identifying PO in our rear view mirror, coincidentally.

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ChrisPhoenix on September 22, 2005 - 1:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
While you're looking at hurricane coincidences, don't forget the nearly-identical landfall points of Frances and Jeanne (2004), and Ivan (2004) and Dennis (2005).

I haven't seen anyone calculate the chance of hurricanes hitting that close together in time and space, but it's got to be pretty low.

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Leanan on September 22, 2005 - 3:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Not necessarily.

Some hurricane guru was on CNN last month, and a caller asked him about this.  He said they don't fully understand it, but there's a tendency for hurricanes to follow "trends."  For several years, Atlantic hurricanes would tend to go up the east coast, and whack North Carolina.  But they've been gradually shifting west.  Florida got socked last year, and this year, it looks like it's the Gulf's turn.

It could mean the Oil Patch should expect a lot more hurricanes for a few years.

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112 comments on Rita Old Comment Thread 2

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