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40 comments on Peak Oil and Community Solutions Conference (Saturday)

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Stuart Staniford on September 27, 2005 - 4:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You are reacting, I think, to an accurate perception that this was a pretty left-wing eco/sustainability crowd at this conference. You've mentioned in the past that you are a republican. Personally I'm more-or-less a Clinton democrat. People at all ends of the political spectrum are going to be drawn to this movement, and we will have to learn to live with each other.

I don't think any of the speakers are advocating mass starvation. It's my inference that that is a likely outcome of trying to go back to a pre-industrial society - an inference that's worth debating I think (as we did, vigorously, yesterday). There certainly are people in the peak oil movement who think mass starvation is inevitable.

As to Cuba: I was uncomfortable with what I thought was an unbalanced presentation that made no mention of political repression there. At the same time, I think it's extremely questionable that the US could survive a near overnight 50% loss of oil supply and have it be no worse than a weight loss program. I think that really is an achievement and it's well worth studying how they did it. Just because we disagree with a country's political system is no reason not to study them and steal their best ideas. I deplore the current US policy on Cuba and think it only serves to prop up the regime there.

I think there is a huge risk of peak oil triggering a descent into authoritarianism (either of the left wing or right wing variety). I think that's devoutly to be avoided. I also think it's very likely that we'll see greater government involvement in the economy (because it will be politically infeasible for them to let the market run its course - just as major wars tend to trigger rationing etc, I think there's a strong likelihood that peak oil will too.

My own desire is to look at all pieces of evidence, and listen to all points of view, and know something of all relevant academic disciplines, and do my best to understand and synthesize them as objectively as I can, without fear of whether my conclusions make me temporarily popular or unpopular with particular segments of opinion.

Finally, I wanted to say that I appreciate your perspective and encourage you to keep voicing it. I sense that many ODers are a little more left-leaning than you are, and I hope you'll not be deterred by that but continue to give us your thoughts.

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Valuethinker on September 18, 2006 - 8:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Societies and civilisations (like companies, and other organisations such as militaries) occupy ecological niches.

The German Wehrmacht (Army) of 1941 was probably the most superb instrument of military aggression ever invented.   There was literally no one on the planet who could beat it.

However as conditions changed (one of them being a growing shortage of... oil and petroleum products) and new competitors emerged, the Wehrmacht was eventually defeated and obliterated.

Ecological niches change due to outside forces.  Some societies (states, civilisations, organisations, institutions) can, and do, adapt rapidly enough. Some do not.

The Roman Catholic church has adapted rapidly enough to changed circumstances to survive for 1500 years with over 1 billion adherents.  The Manichean church, or the Nestorian one, by contrast, are extinct enough that most people will have to look them up.

the point about Cuba is this.  In a world of relative abundance of energy and raw materials, a free market, decentralised authority state like the United States is best poised to seize opportunities.

In an environment of sudden and rapid energy scarcity, then a society with greater discipline (and discipline usually means secret police, prisons etc: in the post 9-11 world, Mr. Bush has said as much about the US) may be able to adapt more rapidly.

Not always.  North Korea clearly did not (or did so at huge human cost to its people).  But Cuba has, and did.

It's not an ideal state (losing 30lbs each) and McKibben is the first to point that out.  But survive they did.

One can imagine in a parallel situation the US falling into complete civil disorder.  There are over 150 million guns out there, and populations that are locked into needing cars, factory-style food production etc.  It's not a recipe for a happy collective sitting down and rationing.

If there was such a breakdown of civil order, I would imagine that it would be followed by the emergence of 'militia states' a la the southern US during the Reconstruction Era, that would impose order (at the cost of the loss of some personal freedoms).

The open water between Castroist Cuba (a totalitarian state) and a USA which is rather more militaristic than now, would be smaller than it is today.

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40 comments on Peak Oil and Community Solutions Conference (Saturday)

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